Bitcoin on the brink of another plunge: Whales dumping in massive sell-off
Bitcoin has undergone a sharp correction, dropping from $110,000 to around $80,000 in a few weeks. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, attributes this decline to a massive sell-off orchestrated by early whales, who acquired Bitcoin at an average cost of around $16,000. On-chain metrics suggest the market is entering a critical phase in its cycle, with limited short-term bullish potential, casting doubt on optimistic forecasts for 2025.
Translated on November 28, 2025 at 09:31 by Simon Dumoulin
Copié
Early Whale Selling Pressure Overwhelms Institutional Demand
The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between two categories of major holders. On one side, historical whales who accumulated their positions at extremely low prices, around $16,000, are realizing massive gains. These entities are liquidating hundreds of millions of dollars every day, creating constant downward pressure on the spot price.
Source: CryptoQuant
On the other side, institutional players represented by spot Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy continue to accumulate. The problem: their buying power is not offsetting the scale of sales from early adopters. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC for at least 155 days show an average cost basis of around $38,000, according to CryptoQuant on-chain data. Active traders on Binance entered positions around $50,000, meaning the majority of participants remain profitable and can sell without urgency.
Flows into Bitcoin ETFs, which had energized the market in early 2025, have slowed considerably. Data from Farside Investors shows that despite $62.68 billion in cumulative inflows, ETFs recorded only $42.8 million in net inflows in late November. This deceleration coincides with intensified selling by early whales, creating a structural imbalance in the order book.
Source: Checkonchain
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price bounced perfectly off the average purchase cost of IBIT ETFs at $81,000, a sign that holders are defending this position.
A Cycle in Shoulder Phase: 30% Correction Possible
Technical analysis and on-chain metrics converge toward a less than encouraging conclusion: Bitcoin appears to have entered the shoulder phase of its market cycle. Ki Young Ju uses the PnL index with a 365-day moving average to identify this cyclical position. Unlike expansion phases where each dollar invested generated significant leverage on total market capitalization, the current valuation multiplier remains neutral, even flat.
This configuration doesn’t necessarily signal a major crash. Ju rules out the hypothesis of a 70 to 80% drop like during previous bear markets. However, a 30% correction remains within the realm of probability, which would bring BTC back to the $70,000 zone if the decline started from $100,000.
Long-short ratios on OKX futures, combined with exchange leverage ratios, confirm this analysis. The market’s debt level remains elevated, multiplying the risk of cascading liquidations during sharp movements. Ju emphasizes the importance of a data-driven rather than speculative approach: “Never trade without data,” he reminds on X, encouraging investors to rely on on-chain metrics rather than bullish narratives.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.
Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
Get 6200 USDT with Bitget ! 🔥
Don't miss out on this offer !
Create your account now to unlock this exclusive reward
