Despite significant accumulation by Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors, BTC price struggles to take off. Surprisingly, historical HODLers gradually cashing out could be the reason behind this trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) is going through a paradoxical phase. Despite the enthusiasm for exchange-traded products and growing appetite from institutional investors, the price is stagnating and even declining at times. Chris Kuiper, a recognized CFA analyst in the crypto ecosystem, recently shared a detailed analysis on X that sheds light on this apparent anomaly. The selling pressure doesn’t stem from panic selling, but from a specific category of actors: long-term holders securing their gains after several years of accumulation.
On-chain data confirms this hypothesis. Unlike previous cycles marked by brutal capitulations or massive profit-taking, current behavior reflects a new market maturity. HODLers are acting with caution, gradually unloading their positions without creating excessive volatility. This controlled selling draws the contours of a more stable crypto market, but also one that’s more complex to interpret for traders accustomed to classic patterns.
The central indicator of this analysis concerns the percentage of Bitcoins that have remained motionless for at least one year. Historically, this metric follows a predictable trajectory: it climbs during bear markets when investors accumulate and HODL, then drops drastically during bull runs when profits are massively realized. The current cycle breaks this established pattern.
Instead of a sharp decline, the data reveals a smooth and gradual decrease, even during phases of slight price appreciation. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, provides quantified insight: the one-year inactive supply only declined by 10 percentage points during the 2021 and 2024-2025 cycles, compared to 20 points during the 2017-2018 bull run. This difference is not trivial.
It testifies to a more experienced investor base that has weathered multiple cycles and now adopts a graduated exit strategy. HODLers no longer seek to time the absolute market top, but prefer to stagger their sales over time. This approach limits individual risks while creating constant but moderate downward pressure on BTC’s price. The market evolves sideways, caught between institutional accumulation and this methodical distribution from former holders.
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Gaston has been a writer for over 7 years and a passionate cryptocurrency enthusiast since 2020. He loves exploring the crypto ecosystem and is now dedicated to sharing his insights and discoveries through InvestX.
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