Is the Bitcoin bull run officially over?

Bitcoin Breaks Below Its Bullish Structure

The price of Bitcoin has recently broken below its 200-day moving average, a major psychological and technical support line. This breakdown comes after a period of heightened volatility and massive profit-taking that has seen BTC retrace a significant portion of its annual gains. Trading volumes have also shown signs of weakness, reinforcing the hypothesis of exhaustion in the bullish momentum.

However, not all analysts share this pessimistic view. Several influential voices in the sector emphasize that fundamentals remain solid and that this type of correction is an integral part of Bitcoin’s cycles. The market structure, particularly the continued accumulation by institutional investors and the decrease in available supply on exchanges, suggests that we could simply be going through a consolidation phase before a new bullish leg.

The 200-Day Moving Average: A Reliable Barometer of Market Sentiment

The 200-day moving average is one of the most respected technical analysis tools in cryptocurrency trading. It represents Bitcoin’s average price calculated over the last 200 trading sessions, thus providing a smoothed view of the underlying trend. When the price trades above this line, the market is considered bullish. Conversely, trading below this average suggests a bearish phase.

Bitcoin’s history shows that crossovers of this moving average have often coincided with major cycle changes. During the 2021 bull market, BTC traded above its 200 MA for many months before losing it definitively during the 2022 bear market. This pattern has repeated during previous cycles, giving this indicator a certain predictive credibility.

Nevertheless, the indicator is not infallible. False signals have already been observed, particularly during brutal corrections within structurally intact bull markets. Technical analysts therefore recommend cross-referencing this indicator with other metrics such as RSI, volumes, or even on-chain data to obtain a more complete picture of the situation.

The Arguments of Bulls Who Refuse to Capitulate

Despite this bearish signal, a significant portion of the crypto community remains convinced that the bull market is not over. Expert Murad recently posted a video on the 116 reasons why the bull market will continue in 2026.

But on-chain data shows that long-term holders continue to sell massively, a behavior typical of the early phases of a bear market.

Some analysts nevertheless point to halving cycles as a more relevant analytical framework. According to this approach, we would currently be in a typical mid-cycle phase, characterized by healthy corrections that allow the market to consolidate before reaching new all-time highs in the coming months. The April 2024 halving continues to exert its effects on supply, a structurally bullish factor in the medium term.

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