After briefly trading above $200, Solana (SOL) is facing selling pressure. Profit-taking is increasing, especially among long-term holders. Will a more significant correction begin, or will the market find a new bullish momentum?
The first warning sign comes from the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric of long-term investors. This technical indicator, which measures unrealized profits or losses, reached 0.44 on August 28 – its highest level in six months and close to the peak of 0.4457 observed on March 2. That previous surge was followed by a sharp 41% drop in Solana ‘s price, from $179 to $105. A similar scenario also occurred on July 22, with a 23% decline after a NUPL peak.
Although the NUPL has slightly decreased to 0.40 recently, this level remains high compared to recent months. This suggests that long-term investors, sitting on significant gains, might be tempted to take profits, thus weighing on the price.
This concern is corroborated by the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which tracks the movements of the oldest coins on the blockchain. Every time the CDD has experienced a spike in the last six months, Solana’s price has quickly dropped afterward.
For example, on March 3, a surge in CDD preceded a 17% decline, from $142 to $118. A new peak on March 25 was accompanied by a drop from $143 to $105. Even when the correction was delayed, as after July 16, it was still significant. We observed a fall from $205 to $158 – or 23%.
A new CDD peak was recorded on August 27, when Solana was trading around $203. Although the correction is just beginning, this pattern suggests that long-term holders might already be monetizing their positions, validating the signals sent by the NUPL.
The technical picture completes this outlook. Solana is currently trading near $203, converting the $201 resistance into temporary support. But the bullish scenario will only hold if the price manages to close a day above this threshold.
A decline below $196 or $191 would shift the momentum downward. Conversely, a break below $175 would confirm a broader correction. On the other hand, a return above $207 – with the formation of a complete closing candle above this level – would extinguish bearish intentions.
On-chain signals indicate selling pressure from long-term holders and crucial technical levels. Solana rebound above $200 might therefore not be sustainable in the short term without stronger support. Investors would be well advised to remain vigilant regarding the future evolution of the flagship blockchain token.
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