The SUI price is currently trading at $1.37, down over 70% from its January 2025 peak. Despite this decline, a key network metric shows a remarkable 900% growth over the same period. Could this disparity between adoption and valuation pave the way for a historic rebound? Technical analysis highlights a critical inflection point on a trendline that has previously sparked rallies of 450% and 750%.
The contrast between SUI ‘s on-chain activity and its price action is striking. The total number of accounts on the network has exploded, surging from 26 million to 230 million since the beginning of the year. This 900% expansion demonstrates sustained user adoption, even during the brutal correction phase.
SUI reached a peak of $5.37 in January 2025 before collapsing by more than 70%. This divergence between adoption metrics and valuation creates a paradoxical situation for traders. While the number of users explodes, the market seems to completely ignore this fundamental growth.
The weekly breakdown of a symmetrical triangle formed earlier this year amplified selling pressure. The technical pattern turned against the bulls, triggering a massive liquidation of long positions and a capital flight toward other layer-1 blockchains.
The collateral damage from this correction directly impacts SUI’s DeFi ecosystem. Total value locked (TVL) has collapsed from $2.63 billion to $947.25 million, representing a contraction of nearly 64%. This liquidity flight reveals a loss of confidence from institutional investors and yield farmers.
The capitalization of stablecoins on the network follows the same downward trajectory. It has dropped from $1.186 billion to $657.16 million, marking a significant withdrawal of stable capital. These DeFi metrics reflect the profound impact of market weakness on liquidity and trading activity.
Despite these negative indicators, SUI is currently positioned at a critical technical zone. The price is testing a long-term bullish trendline that has historically served as a launchpad for explosive rallies. This level could become the inflection point between bearish continuation and a major reversal.
Technical analysis reveals that SUI is currently testing the same ascending trendline that initiated rallies of 450% and 750% during previous cycles. This support zone is not insignificant: it represents the main bullish structure since the token launch.
If this trendline holds through December 2025, analysts estimate that a 500% rebound could materialize in 2026. This scenario would propel SUI’s price toward its previous all-time high of $5.37, with a potential extension to $8.50. The conservative midpoint target of 500% takes into account the historical performance of this technical structure.
However, the bearish scenario remains plausible. The 6-hour chart shows a major Order Block around $1.90. If SUI fails to break through it, the price will return to lower demand zones. And indeed, the weekly chart indicates a major demand zone between $0.75 and $1.02. There is a strong probability that the price will return there if the crypto market does not recover quickly.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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