Despite Bitcoin historically experiencing declines in September, the fourth quarter has often reversed these losses. Will this trend continue this year? Explore the expert's insights now.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound, September historically remains the most challenging month for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Data shows both average and median returns are negative during this period, approximately 3%. However, history has proven that the 4th quarter often reverses these losses, with months like October and November recording some of the strongest gains.
In August, Bitcoin’s average returns hover around 1%, while median performance approaches a 7% loss. Bitcoin’s September slump is back, raising questions about a potential recovery in the 4th quarter. Monthly return data for Bitcoin shows that September is the only month where both average and median returns are negative, approximately 3%.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $120,000 after a 10% correction, while Ethereum consolidates around $4,700. Bitcoin spot ETF flows remain stable, with net inflows of approximately $760 million since August 25, demonstrating solid institutional interest despite overall selling pressure. In total, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed more than $60 billion since their launch.
Global financial markets approach September with monetary policy at the center of concerns. Futures markets anticipate a 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve, against a backdrop of moderate inflation and a sliding dollar. However, trade tensions, including tariffs on imports and semiconductors, remain a major risk, affecting mining and manufacturing activities.
Regulators are preparing the ground to bring cryptocurrencies closer to traditional financial markets. The SEC and CFTC are paving the way for cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States, while the potential evolution of American exchanges toward a more mature cryptocurrency ecosystem is on the horizon. Combined with evolving valuation models like PlanB’s, this dynamic could support long-term adoption, despite persistent risks.
Although September is historically Bitcoin’s weakest month, history shows that the 4th quarter has often managed to reverse the trend. With a mixed macroeconomic backdrop and encouraging regulatory developments, crypto-asset investors will need to remain vigilant to capitalize on upcoming opportunities.
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