Six consecutive weeks of inflows into XRP spot ETFs totalling over a billion dollars, yet the price remains surprisingly low. Despite institutional demand hinting at a significant increase, on-chain data reveals a contrasting narrative, diving into a paradox challenging the entire crypto market.
The series of inflows into spot XRP ETFs began in mid-November 2024, with particularly impressive initial volumes. The week of November 14 recorded $243.05 million in net inflows, followed by $179.60 million the following week. A peak was reached at the end of November with $243.95 million, then again in early December with $230.74 million for the week of December 5.
These figures place XRP among the most dynamic crypto ETF launches of the year. The cumulative total now exceeds $1.01 billion, a respectable performance that should normally support the price. But since mid-December, momentum has noticeably slowed.
The week of December 11 attracted only $93.57 million, representing a drop of more than 50% compared to the best weeks. Even more revealing, the last analyzed week, ending December 16, generated only $19.44 million in inflows. This sharp deceleration signals a cooling of institutional appetite, even though flows remain positive. As long as ETF demand does not accelerate, XRP’s price struggles to find a sufficient bullish catalyst.
Analysis of on-chain data reveals a behavioral fracture among XRP holders. On one hand, the proportion of supply inactive for more than one year increased from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00% currently, marking a monthly high. This remobilization of dormant tokens often indicates preparation for profit-taking or exposure reduction.
This potential selling pressure, however, is not uniform. The net holder change metric, which tracks wallets holding XRP for more than 155 days, shows a more nuanced evolution. Net outflows peaked at 216.86 million XRP on December 11, before declining to 154.57 million XRP on December 16, a 29% reduction. This suggests that some long-term holders are choosing to maintain their positions despite the volatility.
This contradictory picture largely explains the price stagnation. Dormant supply is awakening, creating latent downward pressure, while the slowdown in actual sales prevents a brutal collapse. However, one hypothesis persists: These holders could be waiting for more favorable rebounds to liquidate their positions, turning each rally into a selling opportunity.
Price action reflects this precarious balance. XRP is currently moving within a descending wedge, stuck at the heart of its recent range. Bulls are closely watching the resistance at $2.28. A daily close above this threshold would invalidate the bearish structure and open the way to approximately 19% upside potential, toward $2.71.
The bearish scenario, however, remains the most immediate. A break of support at $1.74, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, would quickly expose the $1.59 zone. In case of widespread crypto market weakness, an extension toward $1.41 becomes conceivable, a level aligned with major historical support levels.
XRP’s current situation illustrates a key reality: institutional inflows via ETFs, however significant, are not sufficient to sustainably support an asset if the on-chain behavior of existing holders remains bearish or hesitant. As long as holder metrics do not clearly shift toward net accumulation, each rebound risks encountering significant resistance from historical investors seeking to exit.
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