Bitcoin is currently undergoing a significant correction, edging dangerously close to the $100,000 psychological level amidst increasing selling pressure. Long-term investors, known for their resilience, are starting to offload their positions, signaling concern for market structure. The downward momentum raises a crucial question: what support levels could halt this decline, or conversely, trigger a further drop?
The behavior of Bitcoin long-term holders currently constitutes one of the most determining factors in this downward trend. Unlike classic consolidation phases where these actors accumulate during dips, on-chain data reveals active distribution of their positions. This partial capitulation of HODLers, who typically hold their BTC for more than six months, represents a significant shift in market sentiment.
Selling volumes from these historical wallets are fueling persistent downward pressure. When the most convinced investors start taking profits or reducing their exposure, it often creates a domino effect on newer market participants. The market is struggling to absorb this additional supply, especially as institutional demand seems to be taking a pause after several months of aggressive accumulation.
This dynamic is clearly observed in indicators such as the SOPR and long-term holder spending, suggesting significant profit-taking. The timing of these sales comes after a period of substantial gains since the beginning of the year, which is not abnormal in itself, but their magnitude is concerning technical analysts.
The $100,000 zone represents much more than just a round number on the charts. This level now concentrates a significant density of technical support, reinforced by liquidation clusters and historical accumulation zones. A clean break below this threshold could trigger a cascade of stop-losses and open the path to much lower levels.
Taking a step back, Bitcoin absolutely needs to find buyers. With increasingly distinct bearish divergences on the 3-day RSI, the bullish trendline at $97,000 becomes crucial. A loss of this level will provoke massive liquidations, and the price should return to the major demand zone between $79,000 and $88,000.
However, in the short term, liquidations are more numerous in short positions, which could signal a relief rally for Bitcoin between $108,000 and $112,000.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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