{"id":15867,"date":"2025-08-27T14:56:01","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T13:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=15867"},"modified":"2025-08-27T14:56:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T13:56:02","slug":"unveiling-why-bitcoin-cycles-are-decoupled-from-halvings-deep-dive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/unveiling-why-bitcoin-cycles-are-decoupled-from-halvings-deep-dive\/","title":{"rendered":"Unveiling Why Bitcoin Cycles Are Decoupled from Halvings: A Deep Dive"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"bitcoin-cycles-a-dynamic-based-on-adoption\">Bitcoin Cycles: A Dynamic Based on Adoption<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>According to analyst <strong>James Check<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> has <strong>experienced three distinct market cycles<\/strong>, which are not directly linked to the mining reward reduction events (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/halving-date\/\">halvings<\/a><\/strong>). He explains that these cycles are instead rooted in <strong>&#8220;adoption trends and market structure&#8221;<\/strong>. With major transition points in <strong>2017 and 2022.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings.<br><br>They are anchored around the trends in adoption and market structure, with the 2017 top, and 2022 bottom being the transition points<br>\ud83d\udd34 Retail early adoption<br>\ud83d\udfe0 Wild West, Boom &amp;\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3rbUUpnwen\">pic.twitter.com\/3rbUUpnwen<\/a><\/p>&mdash; _Checkmate \ud83d\udfe0\ud83d\udd11\u26a1\u2622\ufe0f\ud83d\udee2\ufe0f (@_Checkmatey_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_Checkmatey_\/status\/1960459119053431214?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Check identifies an <strong>&#8220;adoption cycle&#8221; from 2011 to 2018,<\/strong> driven by retail investors, an <strong>&#8220;adolescence cycle&#8221;<\/strong> from <strong>2018 to 2022<\/strong> marked by a &#8220;wild leveraged boom and crash,&#8221; and the current <strong>&#8220;maturity cycle&#8221;<\/strong> since <strong>2022<\/strong>, fueled by &#8220;institutional maturity and stability.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"challenging-the-four-year-cycle-theory\">Challenging the Four-Year Cycle Theory?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This analysis contradicts the popular theory that Bitcoin market cycles extend <strong>over approximately four years<\/strong> and are <strong>closely tied to halving events<\/strong>. Some experts believe that this traditional cycle is <strong>obsolete<\/strong>.  The bull market could be prolonged thanks to the influx of institutional investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Things changed after the 2022 <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto-bullrun\/\">bear market<\/a>, and people assuming the past will repeat are probably missing the signal because they&#8217;re looking at the wrong historical signal,&#8221; <strong>writes James Check on X.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>However, other analysts such as Glassnode assert that Bitcoin is still following its usual cyclical patterns. Although recent profit-taking suggests the market has reached an <strong>advanced phase of the cycle.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> Cycle \ud83d\udd04<br><br>Until proven broken, this is still the most reliable long-term <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> chart.<br><br>Don\u2019t fight the cycle. Just ride it. \ud83d\udeb4\u200d\u2642\ufe0f\ud83d\udcc8 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/i4layBInTD\">pic.twitter.com\/i4layBInTD<\/a><\/p>&mdash; JDK Analysis \ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa (@The_JDK99) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/The_JDK99\/status\/1952712330229281256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 5, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, the question of whether Bitcoin truly follows a four-year cycle or if <strong>new factors<\/strong> are influencing its dynamics remains open within the crypto community. Only time will tell us more about the true drivers of market cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-bitget\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Buy BTC on Bitget and earn $10 instantly!<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>On the same topic: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/will-bitcoin-fall-if-the-fed-does-not-lower-interest-rates\/\">Will Bitcoin drop if the FED doesn\u2019t lower interest rates ?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/discover-why-sonic-surged-by-17-in-just-hours\/\">Why SONIC exploded by 17% in just a few hours<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/chainlink-outperforms-the-market-is-it-pyths-turn-to-shine-next\/\">Chainlink Outperforms the Market : Is it PYTH\u2019s Turn to Shine Next ?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Do Bitcoin&#8217;s bull and bear cycles truly align with halving events? An analyst argues that various factors influence the movements of the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":15866,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"bitcoin","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Are Bitcoin Price Cycles Decoupled from Halvings Now?","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Uncover why Bitcoin market cycles don't revolve around mining reward reductions. Explore the factors driving Bitcoin price shifts.","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":""},"categories":[12,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are Bitcoin Price Cycles Decoupled from Halvings Now?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Uncover why Bitcoin market cycles don&#039;t revolve around mining reward reductions. 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Je suis \u00e9galement form\u00e9 au trading et \u00e0 l\u2019analyse technique depuis plus d\u2019un an sur le march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies, mais \u00e9galement sur le forex et les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux comme l\u2019or ou le silver. J\u2019ai obtenu un dipl\u00f4me de la Crypto Academy sur les fondamentaux techniques du Bitcoin et poss\u00e8de une exp\u00e9rience de plus de 5 ans dans le journalisme et l\u2019\u00e9criture d\u2019articles p\u00e9dagogiques. J\u2019ai notamment \u00e9crit de nombreuses masterclass pour \u00e9duquer les nouveaux venus dans l'industrie et plus de 10 000 articles et news.J\u2019ai \u00e9galement pu interviewer de nombreux fondateurs et cr\u00e9ateurs de projets dans la crypto comme Marc Lebreton (chef marketing de la blockchain SUI), EJ Ayala (Coinbase US et Draftkings), et d\u2019autres projets comme Polyhedra (Eric Vreeland), Usual (Adli Takkal Bataille), ou encore Humanity Protocol (Jade Gu). J\u2019ai plong\u00e9 dans la cryptomonnaie il y a plus de 3 ans et continue de mettre tout en \u0153uvre pour fournir du contenu de qualit\u00e9, avec de l\u2019expertise et la neutralit\u00e9 attendue d\u2019un journaliste. Retrouvez moi aussi sur X pour des analyses et sur Linkedin pour me contacter.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/charles-ledoux-508392239\/","https:\/\/x.com\/charl3li"],"url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/author\/charles-ledoux\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15867"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15867\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15871,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15867\/revisions\/15871"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}