{"id":18562,"date":"2025-10-09T08:03:54","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T07:03:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=18562"},"modified":"2025-10-09T08:03:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T07:03:57","slug":"arthur-hayes-explains-why-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-is-truly-dead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/arthur-hayes-explains-why-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-is-truly-dead\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Explains Why Bitcoin&#8217;s 4-Year Cycle is Truly Dead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"bitcoin-the-mirror-of-global-monetary-decisions\">Bitcoin, the Mirror of Global Monetary Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hayes argues that every <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> bull run<\/strong> coincides with phases of quantitative easing and abundant liquidity in traditional markets. The previous <strong>bullish cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021<\/strong> all occurred in environments of low interest rates and <strong>massive monetary expansion<\/strong>. The <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/halving-date\/\">halving<\/a>, the programmed event that cuts miners&#8217; rewards in half every four years, was reportedly just a <strong>narrative catalyst<\/strong> rather than a true fundamental driver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ARTHUR HAYES: &quot;Four-year cycles are over, Bitcoin is headed to $200,000.&quot;<br><br>Send it. \ud83d\ude80 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qxlvO07hup\">pic.twitter.com\/qxlvO07hup<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BTC_Archive\/status\/1967581820137922735?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 15, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The real change lies in the <strong>growing correlation<\/strong> between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets. When the Fed tightens its monetary policy and raises rates, capital flows dry up in both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, when liquidity taps open, Bitcoin benefits from the <strong>general rally of risk assets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On-chain data confirms this evolution. The dominance of institutional investors in <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-investing\/trading\/options\/\">trading<\/a> volumes and <strong>BTC holdings<\/strong> through ETFs is profoundly changing the <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/trading\/market-maker\/\">market<\/a> structure. These players don&#8217;t follow a calendar based on halvings but react to <strong>macroeconomic signals<\/strong>: inflation, key interest rates, fiscal policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%f0%9f%93%8a-anticipate-bitcoins-next-movements-directly-on-bitget\">\ud83d\udcca Anticipate Bitcoin&#8217;s Next Movements Directly on Bitget<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>While the <strong>Bitcoin cycle<\/strong> is no longer as predictable as before, one thing remains certain: <strong>global liquidity<\/strong> still determines major trends. Arthur Hayes believes that upcoming <strong>monetary easing periods<\/strong> could propel BTC to new heights\u2014regardless of the halving. To capitalize on this dynamic, you can <strong>easily buy Bitcoin on Bitget<\/strong>, with a bonus included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a class=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-bitget\/hugolf\" href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-bitget\/hugolf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1.png\" alt=\"Banniere Bitget 1\" class=\"wp-image-18527\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1.png 900w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1-300x67.png 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1-768x171.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-arrival-of-institutional-investors-disrupts-cyclical-logic\">The Arrival of Institutional Investors Disrupts Cyclical Logic<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>increasing sophistication of the crypto market<\/strong> makes historical patterns less and less reliable. Hayes observes that cycles are becoming increasingly asymmetric and unpredictable in terms of timing. The latest halving in April 2024 didn&#8217;t trigger the <strong>explosive rally expected<\/strong> according to the traditional calendar, which supports his thesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"625\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-12.png\" alt=\"arthur hayes bitcoin\" class=\"wp-image-18564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-12.png 625w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-12-300x159.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Geopolitical factors also play a <strong>decisive role<\/strong> that models based solely on the halving cannot capture. Tensions between major powers, national regulations on cryptocurrencies, and fiscal policies directly impact market sentiment and capital flows. This <strong>increasing complexity<\/strong> fragments the idea of a mechanical and predictable cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hayes therefore encourages investors to <strong>abandon the simplistic vision<\/strong> of &#8220;four years and guaranteed profit.&#8221; Instead, he recommends carefully monitoring macroeconomic indicators: central bank balance sheets, yield curves, credit spreads, and stock market momentum. This <strong>more nuanced approach<\/strong> requires a deeper understanding of <strong>global monetary dynamics<\/strong>, but it better reflects the reality of Bitcoin in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related topics:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/reasons-why-bnb-is-shattering-all-time-highs\/\">Reasons Why BNB Is Shattering All-Time Highs<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/solana-set-to-drop-to-209-the-unmissable-short-opportunity\/\">Solana Set to Drop to $209: The Unmissable Short Opportunity<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/xrp-and-xlm-prices-dip-is-a-deeper-correction-on-the-horizon\/\">XRP and XLM Prices Dip: Is a Deeper Correction on the Horizon?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle is now being challenged by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who believes global monetary policy outweighs it. Interest rates, liquidity injections, and institutional investors now shape BTC\u2019s market dynamics. Is the halving cycle now a thing of the past? Find out more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":18561,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":""},"categories":[11,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoins","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Bitcoin Cycle Demise: Insights from Arthur Hayes&quot;<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover why Arthur Hayes&#039; declaration about the end of Bitcoin &#039;s 4-year cycle is shaking up traditional models. 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