{"id":19308,"date":"2025-10-18T11:53:54","date_gmt":"2025-10-18T10:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=19308"},"modified":"2025-10-18T11:53:56","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T10:53:56","slug":"bitcoin-should-you-hodl-or-sell-amid-rising-bear-market-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-should-you-hodl-or-sell-amid-rising-bear-market-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: Should You HODL or Sell Amid Rising Bear Market Fears?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin ETF Flows: The Decisive Arbiter of the Cycle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 halving<\/strong>, which occurred on April 20<\/strong>, appears to have already marked the peak of the cycle. Historically, Bitcoin<\/a> peaks<\/strong> arrive between 526 and 546 days<\/strong> after the halving. The October 6 peak at $126,200<\/strong> fits perfectly within this historical window<\/strong>, especially as Bitcoin<\/strong> now fluctuates between $105,000 and $114,000<\/strong>, with a key support at $108,000<\/strong> being regularly tested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The macroeconomic context reinforces this hypothesis. The announcement of new American tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a liquidation of $19 billion<\/strong> in futures contracts, pushing institutional traders to seek downside protection<\/strong>. This movement is accompanied by persistent weakness in Bitcoin ETF flows<\/strong>, which are now stagnant or negative, proving a slowdown in demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to CoinShares data, the continuation of net outflows<\/strong> would confirm that October 6 truly represents the cycle peak<\/strong>. Conversely, only a massive return of institutional inflows could trigger a final push toward $135,000 to $155,000<\/strong> before the distribution phase begins.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Bitcoin
Source: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Diminishing Returns: Is Bitcoin Maturing?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Each Bitcoin cycle displays diminishing returns. Between the 2017 peak at $19,783<\/strong> and the 2021 peak at $69,000<\/strong>, the gain reached 248.6%<\/strong>. If $126,000<\/strong> truly represents the new summit<\/strong>, the increase since 2021 would only be 82.6%<\/strong>, consistent with historical exponential decay. This evolution reflects market<\/a> maturation<\/strong>, supported by ETFs and institutional capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past cycles show a constant decrease in gains: +3,696% between 2011 and 2013<\/strong>, then +1,580% between 2013 and 2017<\/strong>. The average decay rate, between 70% and 84%<\/strong>, maintains at approximately 67% in the current cycle<\/strong>. Regarding corrections, previous bear markets lasted 12 to 18 months<\/strong>, with declines of 57% to 76%<\/strong>. A correction of 35% to 55%<\/strong> therefore seems realistic, targeting bottom zones between $57,000 and $82,000<\/strong>, possibly late 2026 or early 2027<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Market indicators confirm a defensive bias. Miners are selling more under pressure from energy costs<\/strong>, while options favor puts over speculative upside<\/strong>, signaling cautious sentiment. Finally, the decrease in dollar liquidity, noted by Reuters, illustrates a tightening of funding and a reduction in risk appetite<\/strong>, restraining any significant Bitcoin rebound<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Position yourself on Bitcoin through Bitget and benefit from an exclusive bonus<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"cta<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the same topic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n