{"id":19987,"date":"2025-10-27T10:28:12","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T10:28:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=19987"},"modified":"2025-10-27T10:28:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T10:28:14","slug":"why-is-polymarket-predicting-a-surprise-deal-by-end-of-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/why-is-polymarket-predicting-a-surprise-deal-by-end-of-november\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is Polymarket predicting a surprise deal by the end of November?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"polymarket-the-crypto-sentiment-barometer\">Polymarket: The Crypto Sentiment Barometer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Decentralized prediction platform <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/trading\/polymarket\/\">Polymarket<\/a><\/strong> is experiencing record activity around the US government shutdown. On-chain data reveals that participants don&#8217;t expect <strong>a quick resolution to the shutdown<\/strong>. Instead, market sentiment points toward a prolonged impasse until late November, with <strong>November 21 identified as the most likely resolution date<\/strong> according to current odds.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-113.png\" alt=\"chart showing bets on the end of the US government shutdown on Polymarket\" class=\"wp-image-19999\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-113.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-113-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/image-113-768x401.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: Polymarket<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>This concentration of bets on a specific period reflects the collective analysis of traders who are scrutinizing political dynamics in Washington. The volumes traded on these prediction markets demonstrate <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-investing\/\">crypto<\/a> investors&#8217; growing appetite for macroeconomic and geopolitical <strong>events<\/strong>. Polymarket has established itself as an alternative barometer to traditional polls, <strong>offering real-time insight into the sentiment of participants<\/strong> willing to risk their capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"polymarket-transforms-political-crisis-into-speculative-market\">Polymarket Transforms Political Crisis into Speculative Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Decentralized prediction markets have experienced accelerated adoption since 2024. Polymarket capitalizes on this trend by allowing users to bet on the outcome of real events via contracts based on <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/polygon\/\">Polygon<\/a>. The total volume of bets related to the <strong>shutdown now exceeds several million dollars<\/strong>, signaling growing institutional interest in these alternative financial instruments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders meticulously analyze political signals to adjust their positions. Every statement from Congressional leaders triggers price movements across different <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/trading\/market-maker\/\">markets<\/a>. This responsiveness illustrates decentralized platforms&#8217; ability to aggregate information faster than traditional channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/blockchain\/\">Blockchain<\/a> transparency offers a decisive advantage. Each transaction remains verifiable and immutable, eliminating <strong>risks of manipulation<\/strong> sometimes found on centralized platforms. Participants can <strong>track capital flows in real time<\/strong> and adjust their strategies accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"november-21-crystallizes-market-expectations\">November 21 Crystallizes Market Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>probabilities<\/strong> displayed on Polymarket reflect a pessimistic reading of the American political situation. Traders believe negotiations <strong>will remain deadlocked for several additional weeks<\/strong>. This anticipation is based on analysis of previous shutdowns and current power dynamics in Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">So far it appears Gov shut down is going to last well into November<br><br>Polymarket has November 16th and beyond at 40% chance <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/I4OTo6yTzw\">pic.twitter.com\/I4OTo6yTzw<\/a><\/p>&mdash; GrainStats \ud83c\udf3e (@GrainStats) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GrainStats\/status\/1981391065375543585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The massive positioning on late November suggests market participants are incorporating specific calendar factors<\/strong>. Budget deadlines and electoral pressures could force parties to find a compromise before the holiday season. This technical reading of the political calendar demonstrates the growing sophistication of participants in these markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The gap between market expectations and official statements remains significant. While political leaders regularly mention an imminent resolution, Polymarket traders <strong>maintain their bearish positions<\/strong>. This divergence highlights the informational value of prediction markets compared to often optimistic institutional communications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Get <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-bitget\/charles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">$10 bonus with just a few clicks<\/a><\/strong> as an exclusive offer right now to buy the best cryptocurrencies on Bitget. Use the <strong>free GetAgent AI assistant<\/strong> to find hidden gems and trade like a pro to <strong>maximize your profits:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a class=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-bitget\/charles\" href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-bitget\/charles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1.png\" alt=\"cta with blue background for bonus Bitget 10 dollars activate bonuses\" class=\"wp-image-18527\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1.png 900w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1-300x67.png 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/Banniere-Bitget-EN1-768x171.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>On the same topic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-volatility-subsiding-ahead-of-potential-short-squeeze-rally\/\">Bitcoin: Volatility Subsiding Ahead of Potential Short Squeeze Rally?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/hyperliquid-surges-by-13-will-the-hype-reach-50\/\">Hyperliquid Surges by 13%: Will the HYPE Reach $50?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/zec-virtual-and-bnb-top-crypto-to-buy-for-the-bull-run\/\">ZEC, VIRTUAL, and BNB: Top Cryptocurrencies to Buy for the Bull Run!<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the US government shutdown nears its 30th day, Polymarket traders are heavily betting on a late resolution. Probabilities are pointing towards a specific date: November 21. This unprecedented scenario is turning the political crisis into a speculative opportunity in decentralized prediction markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":19985,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":""},"categories":[11,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoins","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Polymarket Foresees a Surprise Deal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover Polymarket&#039;s prediction on the resolution of the US shutdown by the end of November. 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Je suis \u00e9galement form\u00e9 au trading et \u00e0 l\u2019analyse technique depuis plus d\u2019un an sur le march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies, mais \u00e9galement sur le forex et les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux comme l\u2019or ou le silver. J\u2019ai obtenu un dipl\u00f4me de la Crypto Academy sur les fondamentaux techniques du Bitcoin et poss\u00e8de une exp\u00e9rience de plus de 5 ans dans le journalisme et l\u2019\u00e9criture d\u2019articles p\u00e9dagogiques. J\u2019ai notamment \u00e9crit de nombreuses masterclass pour \u00e9duquer les nouveaux venus dans l'industrie et plus de 10 000 articles et news.J\u2019ai \u00e9galement pu interviewer de nombreux fondateurs et cr\u00e9ateurs de projets dans la crypto comme Marc Lebreton (chef marketing de la blockchain SUI), EJ Ayala (Coinbase US et Draftkings), et d\u2019autres projets comme Polyhedra (Eric Vreeland), Usual (Adli Takkal Bataille), ou encore Humanity Protocol (Jade Gu). J\u2019ai plong\u00e9 dans la cryptomonnaie il y a plus de 3 ans et continue de mettre tout en \u0153uvre pour fournir du contenu de qualit\u00e9, avec de l\u2019expertise et la neutralit\u00e9 attendue d\u2019un journaliste. Retrouvez moi aussi sur X pour des analyses et sur Linkedin pour me contacter.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/charles-ledoux-508392239\/","https:\/\/x.com\/charl3li"],"url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/author\/charles-ledoux\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19987"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19987\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20000,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19987\/revisions\/20000"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}