{"id":20762,"date":"2025-11-05T13:42:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T13:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=20762"},"modified":"2025-11-05T12:42:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T12:42:37","slug":"bitcoin-historic-bear-signal-2025-crash-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/noticias-cripto\/bitcoin-historic-bear-signal-2025-crash-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Just Triggered Its Biggest Bearish Signal Since 2022 : Is Another Crash Coming ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 365-Day Moving Average : The Ultimate Market Sentiment Barometer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The importance of this technical indicator<\/a> cannot be understated. A look at price history<\/strong> reveals clear patterns that repeat throughout market cycles. The last time Bitcoin<\/a> fell below this moving average was in December 2022, during the heart of the crypto<\/a> winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three months later, in March 2023, the price attempted to bounce back to reclaim this key level<\/strong>. The failure of this attempt triggered a prolonged year-long downtrend<\/strong>, a period marked by the collapse of FTX and the sector-wide liquidity crisis. It wasn’t until a strong bullish breakout<\/strong> above the 365-day moving average in March 2023 that the bear market officially ended.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The sideways consolidation phase<\/strong> that followed this breakthrough lasted nearly a year before the bull run of late 2023 truly kicked in. This historical pattern suggests that losing this support is never insignificant and requires a rapid recovery<\/strong> to avoid a downward cascade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During bullish trends, the 365-day moving average consistently acts as solid support. Two recent examples confirm this: in August 2024, during the massive liquidation of the yen carry-trade that caused a 10% drop in 24 hours<\/strong>, the price bounced precisely at this level. The same scenario played out in April 2025 after aggressive tariff announcements from Trump<\/a><\/strong> that shook global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Critical $100,000 Threshold : The Danger Zone<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The situation becomes even more concerning when analyzing the “Distribution of Acquisition Cost of Top Buyers” metric recently highlighted by Glassnode. This on-chain data reveals that the average acquisition price<\/strong> for the upper quartile of high-cost buyers sits around $100,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This massive concentration of buyers<\/strong> in this price zone creates a major psychological and technical support level. Bitcoin<\/a> hasn’t fallen below this level for two years, during which these investors have accumulated their positions. A decisive break below $100,000<\/strong> would instantly transform these holders into potential sellers, creating amplified downward pressure<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreno is categorical in his warning: “The price must recross this threshold quickly.” This urgency is explained by the dynamics of moving averages. The longer the time spent below this level, the higher the probability of a sustained bearish trend<\/strong>. Technical traders are now watching price behavior in the coming days with extreme attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increased volatility<\/strong> and exchange volume suggest the market is in a price discovery phase. Institutional buyers appear temporarily sidelined, likely waiting for support confirmation<\/strong> before redeploying capital. Data from Bitcoin spot ETF<\/a> flows shows net outflows in recent days, confirming this institutional caution.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Sobre o mesmo assunto<\/strong> :<\/p>\n\n\n\n