{"id":20837,"date":"2025-11-06T11:07:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T11:07:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=20837"},"modified":"2025-11-06T11:07:14","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T11:07:14","slug":"what-bitcoin-needs-do-avoid-another-market-crash-expert-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/what-bitcoin-needs-do-avoid-another-market-crash-expert-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"What Bitcoin Needs to Do to Avoid Another Market Crash: Expert Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Death Cross Forming Alarms Traders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Technical analysis of bitcoin<\/a> through the daily chart reveals a concerning situation. The 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs)<\/strong> are dangerously approaching a bearish crossover<\/strong>, commonly known as a “death cross<\/strong>” in crypto terminology. This technical signal appears when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average, generally indicating a weakening bullish momentum<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent history gives reason for caution.<\/strong> On November 4, a similar bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs<\/strong> triggered a sharp 10% drop<\/strong>. Traders therefore remain vigilant in the face of this new formation, which could precipitate another wave of selling pressure<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)<\/strong>, a key indicator for measuring capital inflows or outflows, remains stuck in negative territory. Since late October, the CMF has not crossed the zero line and remains trapped below a bearish trendline<\/strong> drawn from October 4. This stagnation clearly indicates that large portfolios, the “Whales<\/strong>“, remain on the sidelines. Without this influx of fresh liquidity, any rally attempt risks quickly running out of steam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Long-term Hodlers<\/strong> Are Selling Despite The Rebound: Major Warning Signal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One of the most concerning signals for the health of the current rally comes from the behavior of long-term holders<\/strong>. The Net Position Change of hodlers, an on-chain metric that measures accumulation or distribution by older wallets, displays a negative trend. Between November 2 and 5<\/strong>, this indicator fell from 43,810 BTC to 52,250 BTC<\/strong>, a decrease of 19.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In practical terms, this means that long-term investors sold an additional 8,400 BTC during the rebound phase.<\/strong> This behavior contrasts with historical bullish recoveries, where hodlers typically increase their positions. Their reluctance to accumulate reveals a lack of conviction in the sustainability of the upward movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This continued distribution by strong hands suggests that it is primarily short-term traders<\/strong> who are driving the current movement, without the support of hodlers<\/strong>, traditionally the solid foundation of the market. The recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to any volatility shock.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Bitcoin
Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Critical Levels To Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For Bitcoin<\/a><\/strong> to definitively shift into bullish mode, several technical obstacles must be overcome. The first immediate resistance<\/strong> level sits at $105,600<\/strong>. A daily close above this would confirm the rejection of the support at $103,000<\/strong> and open the path toward higher levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decisive level remains $116,500<\/strong>, about 12% above<\/strong> the current price. A breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and signal a new bullish phase. This zone corresponds to a confluence of major technical resistances<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conversely, a failure to maintain $103,000<\/strong> would quickly expose Bitcoin<\/strong> to a retest of $98,900<\/strong>. If this support gives way with a daily close below, the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern would be broken, activating a theoretical target toward $83,100<\/strong>, representing a correction of approximately 20%<\/strong> from current levels. This scenario remains plausible as long as indicators of money flow and investor conviction<\/strong> show no improvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For now, Bitcoin<\/strong> is navigating an area of maximum uncertainty, where each price movement can quickly shift in one direction or the other. Do automatic DCA on BTC with this new bot<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the same topic:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n