First identified in 1999 through Fourier analysis, this 5.5-year cycle is based on the alternation between phases of global liquidity expansion and contraction. Each cycle follows an identifiable pattern: massive liquidity injection by central banks, speculative euphoria<\/strong> on risk assets<\/strong>, then credit tightening leading to a generalized correction<\/strong> for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The model suggests we are approaching the peak of this cycle<\/strong>, with an expected summit in Q1 or Q2 2026. This timeline places the market<\/a> in an “overheating” window where capital flows are gradually slowing down, increasing the probability of a brutal revaluation of overvalued assets<\/strong>. Historically, cryptocurrencies and technology stocks are the first to be hit during these reversal phases<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, several analysts warn against too literal a reading of this model. The exact timing of peaks<\/strong> remains difficult to determine precisely, with error margins of several quarters. An experienced trader on X points out that “the cycle chronology is often shifted by several years on the chart, making it impossible to determine if the peak has already been reached or is yet to come”<\/em>. This uncertainty requires prudent risk management<\/strong> rather than aggressive market timing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite these limitations, the model maintains significant credibility among macro analysts, particularly because it incorporates global liquidity data rather than focusing solely on benchmark rates or inflation. This holistic approach better captures the real dynamics of cross-border capital flows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n