This concentration of releases comes at a time when traders are sorely lacking visibility on the true health of the American economy<\/strong>. The latest retail sales showed a solid progression of 0.6%<\/strong> in August, while the PPI declined by 0.1%. On an annual basis, the core PPI<\/strong> stood at 2.8%<\/strong>, a level that maintained hopes for monetary easing.<\/p>\n\n\n For September, the consensus projects a moderate increase of 0.3%<\/strong> in retail sales. Any lower figure would immediately fuel speculation about an economic slowdown<\/strong> and strengthen the dovish camp within the Fed. This dynamic would typically benefit Bitcoin<\/a> (BTC), as a dollar weakened by expectations of rate cuts<\/strong> generally supports cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recent history perfectly illustrates this mechanism. Bitcoin touched seven-month lows after the release of strong employment data, triggering nearly $1 billion in outflows<\/strong> from spot Bitcoin<\/a> ETFs, the second-largest negative flow ever recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Producer Price Index represents the last major inflation gauge<\/strong> before the October PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s<\/strong> preferred indicator. Markets currently assess the chances of a rate cut in December at 67.3%<\/strong>, but this probability could shift rapidly depending on PPI figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The consensus anticipates a monthly increase of 0.3%<\/strong> for September. Any significant acceleration, particularly in core PPI which excludes food and energy, would push rate cut expectations below the 60%<\/strong> threshold. This reconfiguration of expectations would mechanically strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure<\/strong> on Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Conversely, a softer-than-expected PPI would validate the scenario of continued monetary easing<\/strong>. Crypto traders are particularly monitoring the evolution of wholesale prices that eventually pass through to final inflation<\/strong>. A moderation of upstream inflationary pressures typically constitutes a positive signal for risk assets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The timing of this release amplifies its strategic importance. With the Christmas period significantly reducing trading volumes, any surprise could generate amplified movements<\/strong> in less liquid markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Wednesday’s initial jobless claims<\/strong> will offer the last snapshot of the labor market<\/a> before the holidays. Analysts forecast 225,000 new filings<\/strong> for the week ending November 22, slightly above the previous 220,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"US](\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/11\/image-157.jpeg\")
A Decisive Barometer for the December Fed Meeting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Jobless Claims: Pre-Holiday Volatility Catalyst<\/h2>\n\n\n\n