{"id":24383,"date":"2025-12-15T10:57:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T10:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=24383"},"modified":"2025-12-15T10:57:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T10:57:17","slug":"5-reasons-why-q1-2026-could-trigger-biggest-crypto-bull-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/5-reasons-why-q1-2026-could-trigger-biggest-crypto-bull-run\/","title":{"rendered":"5 reasons why Q1 2026 could trigger the biggest crypto bull run"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-fed-ends-quantitative-tightening-a-game-changer-for-risk-assets\">The Fed Ends Quantitative Tightening: A Game Changer for Risk Assets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>quantitative tightening (QT)<\/strong> conducted by the Federal Reserve throughout 2025 has systematically drained liquidity from financial markets. This period is now coming to an end, and historical data demonstrates that <strong>halting liquidity drainage<\/strong> represents a major bullish catalyst for risk assets. Data from previous cycles reveals that <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-investing\/buy\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> can register gains of up to 40% when central banks stop reducing their balance sheets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In 2019, the Fed announced QT would end on August 1st.<br><br>The balance sheet of the Fed continued dropping in August despite QT having officially ended because the last round of treasury maturities did not settle until mid August.<br><br>Just because QT ends December 1st does not mean the\u2026<\/p>&mdash; Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intocryptoverse\/status\/1995329779994632515?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Benjamin Cowen highlights a crucial point. In 2019, the Fed announced the end of QT for August 1st. Subsequently, the balance sheet continued to decline throughout August due to the delayed settlement of the final Treasury maturities. The exact timing of market impact therefore remains slightly offset from official announcements. For the current cycle, with an official QT end date of December 1st, 2025, the <strong>positive effects on <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/altcoins\/\">altcoins<\/a><\/strong> should fully materialize during Q1 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The injection or even the <strong>simple maintenance of liquidity<\/strong> in the financial system mechanically reduces <strong>downward pressure on speculative assets<\/strong>. Experienced <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/\">crypto<\/a> traders know that the correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin price action remains one of the most reliable macro indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-zoomex\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Buy your BTC: $5 offered after a 2-minute signup!<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"rate-cuts-and-t-bill-purchases-the-winning-cocktail-for-crypto-liquidity\">Rate Cuts and T-Bill Purchases: The Winning Cocktail for Crypto Liquidity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs anticipates a <strong>resumption of Fed rate cuts in 2026<\/strong>, noting two additional moves planned for March and June that would bring the federal funds rate to 3-3.25%. Lower interest rates systematically increase investor appetite for high-yield assets, of which <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/\">cryptocurrencies<\/a> are an integral part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Goldman: &quot;We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%.&quot;<\/p>&mdash; zerohedge (@zerohedge) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/1992738649260326943?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In parallel, the Fed has initiated a controlled Treasury bill (T-bill) purchase program to manage overnight repo market liquidity. Jerome Powell has clarified that these purchases aim solely to maintain sufficient reserve supply, without constituting a classic QE revival. However, several indicators point to growing pressure on short-term funding, including money market funds holding elevated liquidity levels, tightening T-bill issuance, and <strong>increased seasonal demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These technical interventions in the short-term Treasury market constitute a <strong>significant tailwind<\/strong> for crypto assets. Even without massive QE, improved short-term liquidity reduces funding tensions and frees up capital for riskier allocations. The schedule of regular T-bill purchase operations by the New York Fed confirms this dynamic for the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"midterm-elections-and-the-employment-paradox-political-catalysts\">Midterm Elections and the Employment Paradox: Political Catalysts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 create a <strong>market-friendly political environment<\/strong>. Policymakers generally favor stability over disruption during pre-election periods. Macro researcher Thorsten Froehlich expresses this clearly: if the stock market weakens before the elections, the current administration will be held accountable. This dynamic significantly reduces the risk of sudden regulatory shocks on cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">If the stock market in the USA falters before the midterm elections, the current US administration will be held accountable &#8211; hence they will do everything they can to keep things going in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/equities?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#equities<\/a> (and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#crypto<\/a>) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AytBUmXtBR\">pic.twitter.com\/AytBUmXtBR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Thorsten Froehlich (@FroehlichThors1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FroehlichThors1\/status\/1997711482814120362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 7, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;employment paradox&#8221; constitutes the fifth determining factor. Weakened labor market data, such as modest layoffs or weak job creation, trigger <strong>accommodative responses from the Fed<\/strong>. More relaxed employment conditions increase pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy, indirectly creating more liquidity. This paradox transforms bad economic news into <strong>good news for crypto assets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bitcoin open interest<\/strong> currently remains limited, reflecting cautious sentiment among traders. But if these five tailwinds materialize simultaneously, the current consolidation could quickly give way to a <strong>significant breakout<\/strong>, setting the stage for a historic start to 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/peter-brandts-forecast-bitcoin-heading-25000-dollars-whats-behind-prediction\/\">Peter Brandt\u2019s forecast: Bitcoin heading to $25,000, what\u2019s behind the prediction?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/investing-10000-dollars-crypto-for-2026-ultimate-guide-bitcoin-ethereum-altcoins\/\">Investing $10,000 in crypto for 2026: Ultimate guide to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/why-worlds-highest-iq-holder-predicts-xrp-could-reach-100-dollars-five-years-revealed\/\">Why the world\u2019s highest IQ holder predicts XRP could reach $100 in five years !<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What if the real crypto bull run hasn&#8217;t even started yet? With growing indicators of a unique macro and on-chain alignment in early 2026, including ETFs, liquidity, historical cycles, and mass adoption, here are 5 key reasons why Q1 2026 could smash all records.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":24378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":""},"categories":[11,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoins","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bullish crypto forecast: Targeting top spot in 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover why Q1 2026 could spark the biggest crypto bull run in history! 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