{"id":25298,"date":"2026-01-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=25298"},"modified":"2026-01-02T08:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T08:00:14","slug":"polymarket-traders-give-bitcoin-21-chance-reaching-150k-by-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-traders-give-bitcoin-21-chance-reaching-150k-by-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket traders give Bitcoin 21% chance of reaching $150K by 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"market-sentiment-at-odds-with-analysts\">Market Sentiment at Odds with Analysts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the approval of Spot <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-investing\/buy\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> ETFs and the Halving in April, the consensus among major financial institutions has been decidedly optimistic. Leading players like Standard Chartered and Fundstrat have not hesitated to project a Bitcoin price exceeding <strong>$150,000<\/strong> before year-end. Yet the reality on the ground, as reflected by bets on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/prediction\/polymarket\/bet\/\">Polymarket<\/a><\/strong>, tells a very different story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Polymarket odds say BTC hitting $150K isn\u2019t a given \ud83d\udc40<br><br>Where do you think Bitcoin ends in 2026? <br><br>&#8211; Below $100K <br>&#8211; $100K &#8211; $150K <br>&#8211; $150K &#8211; $200K <br>&#8211; Above $200K <br>Drop your prediction \ud83d\udc47 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mSQS1GiuP1\">pic.twitter.com\/mSQS1GiuP1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Coinpresso (@CoinpressoTeam) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CoinpressoTeam\/status\/2006801314483929447?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 1, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Users of this prediction market platform, who put their own capital at stake, seem to reject the idea of an immediate parabolic <strong>rally<\/strong>. This 21% figure acts as a <strong>cold and rational sentiment indicator<\/strong>, far from the <strong>FOMO<\/strong> that often characterizes euphoric phases. For these traders, the crypto market is currently navigating a complex <strong>consolidation<\/strong> phase rather than a vertical launch pad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"why-this-prevailing-pessimism\">Why This Prevailing Pessimism?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Several factors explain this caution. After reaching a new <strong>ATH<\/strong> in October, Bitcoin underwent multiple <strong>correction<\/strong> and <strong>retracement<\/strong> phases, testing investor psychology. The absence of immediate macroeconomic catalysts and the FED&#8217;s still-strict monetary policy encourage restraint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where analysts sell dreams based on models of ETF inflows, Polymarket traders analyze <strong>liquidity<\/strong> and short-term market structure. To reach $150,000, Bitcoin would need to achieve performance of more than 100% from its current levels in less than six months. A scenario that the majority considers unlikely without a major and sudden <strong>breakout<\/strong> in trading volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take advantage of these volatile phases with <strong>free trading bots from <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-pionex\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Pionex<\/a><\/strong>. Up to <strong>100% annual returns<\/strong> on your BTC and hundreds of other cryptocurrencies. Plus, enjoy <strong>$500 USDT in bonuses<\/strong> to test the bots:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/go-pionex\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Earn returns effortlessly, even in bear markets, with Pionex&#8217;s free bots!<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"more-realistic-price-targets\">More Realistic Price Targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If the $150k target seems out of reach for most bettors, this doesn&#8217;t mean sentiment is entirely <strong>bearish<\/strong>. The probabilities for lower targets, such as $100,000, remain significantly higher. The market appears to be betting on a gradual climb rather than a vertical explosion.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"557\" src=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/01\/image.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin price chart with multiple colored resistances including STH cost basis, True mean price, MVRV and 200 DMA\" class=\"wp-image-25306\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/01\/image.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/01\/image-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/01\/image-768x418.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Source: Checkonchain<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Indeed, numerous on-chain resistance levels are positioned between <strong>$99,000 and $102,000<\/strong>. The average median purchase price of STH at <strong>$99,000<\/strong> is a genuine test, but also a historical price magnet even during bearish phases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s important to note that <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/prediction-market\/\">prediction markets <\/a>are dynamic<\/strong>. A sudden change in regulation or a favorable macroeconomic announcement could quickly reverse the trend and reignite optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In summary, prediction markets can now serve as part of Bitcoin technical analysis and for gauging market sentiment. For Polymarket probabilities to climb, Bitcoin will first need to break through its current resistance levels and confirm a sustainable bullish recovery, thereby invalidating the current stagnation scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/solana-prediction-sol-january-2026\/\">Solana Prediction: What to Expect for SOL in January 2026?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-predicting-their-prices-for-january-2026\/\">Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP: Predicting their prices for January 2026<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-6-percent-gain-close-2025-green\/\">Bitcoin needs 6% gain to close 2025 in the green: Can it happen?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite financial analysts predicting a historic Bull run in 2024, traders on the prediction platform Polymarket are notably skeptical. Latest data reveals a mere 21% probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year, challenging the optimistic forecasts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":25296,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"bitcoin","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Polymarket: 21% odds for Bitcoin at $150k in 2026","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Discover why Polymarket traders doubt Bitcoin will hit $150,000 this year. Get the analysis and insights you need. Join us now!","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":""},"categories":[12,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Polymarket: 21% odds for Bitcoin at $150k in 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover why Polymarket traders doubt Bitcoin will hit $150,000 this year. Get the analysis and insights you need. 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Je suis \u00e9galement form\u00e9 au trading et \u00e0 l\u2019analyse technique depuis plus d\u2019un an sur le march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies, mais \u00e9galement sur le forex et les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux comme l\u2019or ou le silver. J\u2019ai obtenu un dipl\u00f4me de la Crypto Academy sur les fondamentaux techniques du Bitcoin et poss\u00e8de une exp\u00e9rience de plus de 5 ans dans le journalisme et l\u2019\u00e9criture d\u2019articles p\u00e9dagogiques. J\u2019ai notamment \u00e9crit de nombreuses masterclass pour \u00e9duquer les nouveaux venus dans l'industrie et plus de 10 000 articles et news.J\u2019ai \u00e9galement pu interviewer de nombreux fondateurs et cr\u00e9ateurs de projets dans la crypto comme Marc Lebreton (chef marketing de la blockchain SUI), EJ Ayala (Coinbase US et Draftkings), et d\u2019autres projets comme Polyhedra (Eric Vreeland), Usual (Adli Takkal Bataille), ou encore Humanity Protocol (Jade Gu). J\u2019ai plong\u00e9 dans la cryptomonnaie il y a plus de 3 ans et continue de mettre tout en \u0153uvre pour fournir du contenu de qualit\u00e9, avec de l\u2019expertise et la neutralit\u00e9 attendue d\u2019un journaliste. Retrouvez moi aussi sur X pour des analyses et sur Linkedin pour me contacter.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/charles-ledoux-508392239\/","https:\/\/x.com\/charl3li"],"url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/author\/charles-ledoux\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25298"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25298\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25307,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25298\/revisions\/25307"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}