The market is changing its tune. The Truflation index, which measures real-time inflation, shows notable cooling, pushing the odds of a Fed rate cut in March from 9.4% to over 21.2%<\/strong> in one week. The market is beginning to price in the first pivot of 2026. Immediate consequence: analysts anticipate that if the Fed takes action, the DXY could plummet an additional 10%<\/strong>, adding to its 1.4% drop since the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On paper, this is the ideal scenario for a bull run. A weak dollar typically pushes investors toward risk assets like Bitcoin<\/a>. Yet 2025 has broken this correlation: the crypto market has fallen 7.8% even as the dollar lost ground. The culprit? US debt. With $292 billion<\/strong> in interest paid in Q3 2025 and China liquidating its Treasury bonds, the financial system faces major liquidity stress. If this pressure persists, even a free-falling dollar might not be enough to propel BTC to new heights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n