{"id":28075,"date":"2026-04-06T15:53:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T14:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=28075"},"modified":"2026-04-06T18:05:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:05:02","slug":"oil-signal-predicts-market-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/oil-signal-predicts-market-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession alert: This oil signal has predicted every crash since 1987"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"oils-rate-of-change-nears-100-a-massive-warning-signal\">Oil&#8217;s Rate of Change Nears 100%: A Massive Warning Signal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The indicator is as overlooked as it is relentless. The <strong>12-month Rate of Change (ROC) <\/strong>for crude oil currently sits at <strong>91%<\/strong>, just nine short points away from the critical <strong>100%<\/strong> threshold. According to analyst and trader <strong>Jack Prandelli,<\/strong> every time this metric has crossed this fateful level over the past forty years, a stock market crash has followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Every major market crash since 1987 was preceded by one signal.<br><br>Oil&#39;s 12 month rate of change hitting 100%.<br>We&#39;re at 91% right now.<br><br>The historical record:<br><br>\ud83d\udca5 1987 Crash \u2014 Oil ROC &gt;100%<br>\ud83d\udca5 1990 Crash \u2014 Oil ROC &gt;100%<br>\ud83d\udca5 Dot Com Bust \u2014 Oil ROC &gt;100%<br>\ud83d\udca5 2008 Financial Crisis \u2014 Oil\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cRkEKgx6bH\">pic.twitter.com\/cRkEKgx6bH<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jackprandelli\/status\/2040730199747129432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This pattern has played out on five separate occasions: during the 1987 crash, the 1990 oil shock, the bursting of the dotcom bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and most recently during the 2022 <strong>bear market<\/strong>. Today, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the escalating conflict in the Middle East, black gold prices are soaring, threatening to shatter this glass ceiling and send shockwaves through the financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current macroeconomic landscape leaves little room for optimism. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently warned that a barrel approaching <strong>$150 <\/strong>would inevitably plunge the world into <strong>a global recession<\/strong>. Such a spike in energy costs destroys demand, suffocates economies, and drives investors to <strong>massively<\/strong> flee risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-impact-will-this-threat-have-on-bitcoin-and-altcoins\">What Impact Will This Threat Have on Bitcoin and Altcoins?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/\">cryptocurrency<\/a><\/strong> market, surging oil prices traditionally act as a <strong>bearish<\/strong> signal. More expensive energy mechanically fuels inflation, forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer than expected. Hopes for monetary easing are fading, drying up the liquidity that the crypto market desperately needs to kickstart a true <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto-bullrun\/\"><strong>bull run<\/strong>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this tense environment, <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> (BTC) finds itself at a crossroads. While some investors hope to see it act as a safe haven against geopolitical instability, the historical correlation of cryptos with tech stocks raises fears of a severe <strong>retracement<\/strong>. If the traditional market capitulates under the weight of a recession, cryptocurrencies could face <strong>massive<\/strong> selling pressure, dragging altcoins into a steep freefall. In a more optimistic scenario, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-price-analysis-69k-78k\/\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/strong> could continue to consolidate below <strong>$80,000<\/strong> for many months, likely until the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the <strong>crypto<\/strong> market is notorious for its unexpected reversals. Growing institutional adoption or a widespread loss of confidence in fiat currencies could trigger a surprise bullish <strong>breakout<\/strong>. Last year, it was in April that <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> experienced its trend reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"can-the-crypto-market-survive-another-oil-shock\">Can the Crypto Market Survive Another Oil Shock?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>History shows us that financial markets always end up buckling in the face of a major energy crisis. With oil&#8217;s rate of change nearing the red zone, the probability of a global <strong>correction<\/strong> has never been higher since 2022. Investors are flying blind, torn between the fear of an imminent collapse and the hope of a last chance <strong>rally<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Do you see it? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IkydHD93SJ\">pic.twitter.com\/IkydHD93SJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NoLimitGains\/status\/2040702306992169407?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to analyst NoLimit, the second wave of the market downturn is approaching. Indeed, he points to a historical chart of the stock market&#8217;s CAPE ratio that urges caution. The CAPE ratio measures how expensive stocks are relative to their average earnings over the past 10 years (adjusted for inflation). At ~40x today, we are in an <strong>extremely high<\/strong> zone, close to the peak of the 2000 dotcom bubble and higher than most other historical crashes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This surge in black gold, up more than 80% since the beginning of the year, therefore acts as a true inflationary shock: it strengthens the dollar, pushes back the timeline for Fed rate cuts, and weighs on global liquidity, putting risk assets in a tough spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question is no longer whether oil will impact the economy, but rather how capital will be reallocated during the storm. Will Bitcoin manage to establish itself as the ultimate digital gold, or will it suffer the same fate as traditional equities? Faced with this <strong>massive<\/strong> uncertainty, is it time to secure profits or aggressively accumulate in anticipation of the next cycle?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/new-revenue-hierarchy-how-hyperliquid-is-outpacing-legacy-chains\/\">BeinCrypto<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>X &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KillaXBT\/status\/2040790568016506935\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Nolimit<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jackprandelli\/status\/2040730199747129432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Jack Prandelli<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related Articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/crypto-gainers-losers-weekly\/\">Crypto movers &amp; shakers: ALGO Soars, SIREN dumps this week<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/hyperliquid-revenue-hype-investment\/\">Hyperliquid revenue surges: Should you invest in HYPE?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-price-analysis-69k-78k\/\">Bitcoin surges to $69,000: Can it reach $78,000?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil&#8217;s price surge is a historic crash signal. Could the crypto market face a massive retracement? Find out what the data says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":28074,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"oil signal","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Oil signal predicts market crash? Crypto could retrace!","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Oil's price surge is a historic crash signal. Could the crypto market face a massive retracement? Find out what the data says.","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":"crypto-news\/oil-signal-predicts-market-crash"},"categories":[11,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoins","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Oil signal predicts market crash? Crypto could retrace!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil&#039;s price surge is a historic crash signal. Could the crypto market face a massive retracement? 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Crypto could retrace!","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/oil-signal-predicts-market-crash\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/oil-signal-predicts-market-crash\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/04\/06175334\/Laction-des-prix-de-Cardano-et-les-niveaux-a-venir-86.jpg","datePublished":"2026-04-06T14:53:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-06T17:05:02+00:00","description":"Oil's price surge is a historic crash signal. Could the crypto market face a massive retracement? 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Je suis \u00e9galement form\u00e9 au trading et \u00e0 l\u2019analyse technique depuis plus d\u2019un an sur le march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies, mais \u00e9galement sur le forex et les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux comme l\u2019or ou le silver. J\u2019ai obtenu un dipl\u00f4me de la Crypto Academy sur les fondamentaux techniques du Bitcoin et poss\u00e8de une exp\u00e9rience de plus de 5 ans dans le journalisme et l\u2019\u00e9criture d\u2019articles p\u00e9dagogiques. J\u2019ai notamment \u00e9crit de nombreuses masterclass pour \u00e9duquer les nouveaux venus dans l'industrie et plus de 10 000 articles et news.J\u2019ai \u00e9galement pu interviewer de nombreux fondateurs et cr\u00e9ateurs de projets dans la crypto comme Marc Lebreton (chef marketing de la blockchain SUI), EJ Ayala (Coinbase US et Draftkings), et d\u2019autres projets comme Polyhedra (Eric Vreeland), Usual (Adli Takkal Bataille), ou encore Humanity Protocol (Jade Gu). J\u2019ai plong\u00e9 dans la cryptomonnaie il y a plus de 3 ans et continue de mettre tout en \u0153uvre pour fournir du contenu de qualit\u00e9, avec de l\u2019expertise et la neutralit\u00e9 attendue d\u2019un journaliste. Retrouvez moi aussi sur X pour des analyses et sur Linkedin pour me contacter.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/charles-ledoux-508392239\/","https:\/\/x.com\/charl3li"],"url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/author\/charles-ledoux\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28075"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28092,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28075\/revisions\/28092"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28074"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}