The FOMC minutes from March 17 and 18, 2026, published on April 9<\/strong>, confirm what the markets have feared for several weeks: the Fed is flying blind. Policymakers weighed opposing scenarios regarding how the war could impact inflation and employment. Most participants stated that a prolonged war could weaken the labor market and increase the need for rate cuts. Meanwhile, others estimated that rate hikes might be necessary if surging energy prices intensify inflationary pressure. For a crypto market<\/a> looking for a clear signal, this is maximum ambiguity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The internal picture at the FOMC is more fragmented than it appears. Seven policymakers favor zero rate cuts in 2026, while seven support a single cut. Only one governor dissented: Stephen Miran, who favored a 25 basis point cut. Jerome Powell acknowledged that the possibility of a rate hike was discussed at the meeting, but the vast majority of participants did not view it as their baseline scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The economy is caught in a vice. The CPI rose by 2.4%<\/strong> year over year in February, and the core CPI is holding at 2.5%<\/strong>, still above the 2%<\/strong> target. Oil prices crossed the $100 per barrel<\/strong> mark in March, and the Fed’s internal inflation model estimates that a $10 per barrel<\/strong> increase pushes inflation up by approximately 0.35%<\/strong>. A three to six month period above $100<\/strong> could therefore add more than one percentage point to inflation. For traders positioning rate futures, this context is particularly challenging to integrate into a coherent model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Fed maintained its projection of a single rate cut in 2026. Nevertheless, markets remain skeptical about the chances of monetary easing this year. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 28 and 29, 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n