{"id":29243,"date":"2026-05-13T16:19:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T15:19:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=29243"},"modified":"2026-05-13T16:19:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T15:19:56","slug":"bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: Will it repeat the patterns of 2017 and 2021?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-cyclical-structure-no-one-can-ignore\">The cyclical structure no one can ignore<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Analyst <strong>Merlijn The Trader<\/strong> has identified a major technical setup on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin\/&amp;sa=D&amp;source=editors&amp;ust=1778673857784302&amp;usg=AOvVaw06FlPjX9fyUFbVFM5Grl-A\">Bitcoin<\/a>. <strong>BTC<\/strong> is currently trading above <strong>$80,000<\/strong>, in an area well known to the <strong>2017<\/strong> and <strong>2021<\/strong> cycles. Each time, the price broke through a key resistance before suffering a brutal <strong>fakeout<\/strong>, liquidating the positions of overexposed traders. This bear trap then preceded the most powerful rally of the cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The mechanics are always the same. Bitcoin breaks a major resistance, attracts late buyers, and then makes a brief return below support to trigger stops. Cascading liquidations amplify the short term bearish movement. Sentiment temporarily turns bearish. Then strong hands absorb the supply from panicked sellers, and the price rebounds in a violent bullish impulse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, a break below <strong>$78,000<\/strong> would exactly match this scenario. This level is closely monitored by traders practicing swing trading on BTC. Such a drop would not be fundamentally catastrophic, but it would mechanically trigger a wave of panic among less prepared investors. For those who understand the cyclical crypto trend, this movement would instead represent a rare accumulation window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">What if Bitcoin just printed another fakeout before expansion?<br><br>2017 did it.  <br>2021 did it.  <br>Now 2025 is showing a very similar structure again.<br><br>Sharp breakdown below support.  <br>Then immediate recovery back into the range.<br><br>Bitcoin has trapped traders like this before. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wXObpUBiHJ\">pic.twitter.com\/wXObpUBiHJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MerlijnTrader\/status\/2053399646110638501?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"fakeout-or-real-reversal-how-to-tell-the-difference\">Fakeout or real reversal: How to tell the difference?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The distinction between a <strong>fakeout<\/strong> and a genuine bearish reversal relies on a few key indicators. The weekly RSI is the first filter to apply. During the <strong>2017<\/strong> and <strong>2021<\/strong> fakeouts, the indicator did not enter extreme oversold territory before the bounce. It simply corrected from an overbought zone toward its average before heading back up. A weekly RSI that stays above <strong>40<\/strong> during a correction generally validates the bear trap thesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD on higher timeframes provides an essential complementary signal. In <strong>2017<\/strong> and <strong>2021<\/strong>, the histogram bars did not flip into deep negative territory during the fakeout. Bearish momentum remained contained. If this setup repeats today, it is the most reliable signal that the correction is temporary. Experienced traders in technical analysis use precisely this RSI\/MACD combination to filter out false bearish signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The open interest on Bitcoin futures contracts is the third element to monitor. A fakeout is usually accompanied by a brutal drop in open interest, a sign that short positions are closing massively after being liquidated. This flush of shorts creates the conditions for a <strong>short squeeze<\/strong> that propels the price upward. Platforms like Bybit and Hyperliquid publish this data in real time, allowing informed traders to spot the signal before it becomes visible on the price chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"751\" src=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/13115345\/Capture-decran-2026-05-13-a-08.00.07-1024x751-2.jpg\" alt=\"BTC\/USDT daily chart (Binance) at $80,575 with MACD showing slight bearish divergence at -2.83, illustrating Bitcoin's consolidation in May 2026 after peaking at $82,000.\" class=\"wp-image-29241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/13115345\/Capture-decran-2026-05-13-a-08.00.07-1024x751-2.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/13115345\/Capture-decran-2026-05-13-a-08.00.07-1024x751-2-300x220.jpg 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/13115345\/Capture-decran-2026-05-13-a-08.00.07-1024x751-2-768x563.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"242000-bold-projection-or-realistic-target\">$242,000: Bold projection or realistic target?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The projection of <strong>Merlijn The Trader<\/strong> to <strong>$242,000<\/strong> is based on a simple and historically consistent method. By applying the amplitude of post fakeout movements from previous cycles to the current structure, the analyst extrapolates a target consistent with the exponential nature of Bitcoin bull runs. In <strong>2017<\/strong>, BTC multiplied by <strong>20<\/strong> from its fakeout point. In <strong>2021<\/strong>, the multiplier was around <strong>5<\/strong>. The <strong>$242,000<\/strong> target fits into this logic of diminishing yet still powerful cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fibonacci levels projected from the current cycle point to extensions between <strong>$200,000<\/strong> and <strong>$250,000<\/strong> on higher timeframes. These zones coincide with the projections of several on chain models tracked by <strong>Glassnode<\/strong> analysts. The <strong>Stock to Flow<\/strong> model and realized value indicators also converge toward similar targets for the end of the current cycle. The most serious Bitcoin forecasts fall within this range without excessive speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holding firmly above <strong>$82,000<\/strong> would even invalidate the fakeout thesis and directly open a phase of vertical expansion. In this case, the market would skip the purge stage and head straight toward the first major resistances above <strong>$90,000<\/strong>. For altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, or XRP, a Bitcoin surging to new highs would be the catalyst for a widespread <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/kospi-7700-ai-bull-run-korea-asia\/\">crypto bull run<\/a> across the entire market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8 INSIGHT:  Glassnode says Bitcoin LTH unrealized losses hit 15% in April, far below deep bear market levels above 75%. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vPF4UCeXFz\">pic.twitter.com\/vPF4UCeXFz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Cointelegraph\/status\/2054195109818761625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"will-bitcoin-offer-one-last-buying-opportunity-in-2026\">Will Bitcoin offer one last buying opportunity in 2026?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The honest answer is that no one can predict with certainty whether the fakeout will happen. What the history of cycles teaches us is that these structures repeat because human psychology does not change. Fear and greed always produce the same mass behaviors, and crypto whales know how to exploit these emotions to accumulate before major impulses. Vigilance is therefore the most rational stance in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors looking to invest in crypto through Bitcoin with a medium term logic, a scaled entry strategy on support zones remains the most suitable approach in this uncertain context. Spreading purchases between <strong>$78,000<\/strong> and <strong>$82,000<\/strong> allows you to average your entry price without trying to perfectly time the bottom. Securing your BTC on a Ledger immediately after purchase remains a basic precaution, regardless of the setup. Platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken offer the necessary liquidity to execute this type of strategy without friction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our take: the scenario presented by <strong>Merlijn The Trader<\/strong> is technically solid and historically documented. It is not a fanciful projection, but a rigorous reading of past cycles applied to the current structure. The fear and greed index and on chain data suggest that the market has not yet reached the euphoria levels characteristic of cycle peaks. The crypto trend remains structurally bullish. A fakeout would be painful in the short term, but would likely represent one of the last opportunities to buy Bitcoin before the cycle truly takes off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BullTheoryio\">MerlijnTrader<\/a> on X<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fr.tradingview.com\/chart\/emC63rri\/?symbol=GEMINI%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Cointelegraph\">Cointelegraph<\/a> on X<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related Articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/jpmorgan-jltxx-ethereum-fund\/\">JPMorgan launches JLTXX: A tokenized Ethereum fund for Stablecoin reserves<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/toncoin-price-analysis\/\">Toncoin (TON) plummets 15%: Where does the price go from here?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/xrp-price-analysis-ripple-200m\/\">Why can&#8217;t XRP break $1.50? Ripple&#8217;s $200M raise analyzed<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin surges! Will history repeat itself? Analyst predicts a potential dip before a massive bull run. Get the latest Bitcoin price analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":29242,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":"crypto-news\/bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns"},"categories":[12,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin: Is a 2017\/2021 repeat coming? 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Passionn\u00e9 par la blockchain depuis 2019, j'ai publi\u00e9 plus de 1 200 articles et guides sur les cryptomonnaies, la DeFi et la blockchain, reconnus pour leur fiabilit\u00e9 et leur clart\u00e9.\\u2028 Sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans le trading on-chain et l'analyse des mouvements de baleines, je d\u00e9crypte les flux blockchain pour anticiper les tendances avant qu'elles ne deviennent \u00e9videntes. L'un de mes articles a \u00e9t\u00e9 cit\u00e9 par \u00c9ric Larchev\u00eaque, cofondateur de Ledger, t\u00e9moignant de la qualit\u00e9 et de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de mes analyses.\\u2028 Mon objectif reste inchang\u00e9 : rendre la crypto compr\u00e9hensible pour tous, des d\u00e9butants aux investisseurs confirm\u00e9s. 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Get the latest Bitcoin price analysis.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/13115357\/Covers-InvestX-3-2026-05-13T081606.816-1.jpg?wsr","contentUrl":"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/13115357\/Covers-InvestX-3-2026-05-13T081606.816-1.jpg?wsr","width":840,"height":560,"caption":"Symbole Bitcoin BTC rendu en tubes n\u00e9on verre premium, d\u00e9grad\u00e9 lumineux or chaud et bleu \u00e9lectrique, esth\u00e9tique tech financi\u00e8re professionnelle et \u00e9pur\u00e9e, halo lumineux doux sur fond blanc \u00e9clatant, reflets chromatiques subtils sur surface polie, style branding crypto \u00e9ditorial, d\u00e9tails nets et pr\u00e9cis,"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-2017-2021-patterns\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Bitcoin: Will it repeat the patterns of 2017 and 2021?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/","name":"InvestX \u2013 Crypto News, Trading Guide, Price Analysis & Forecasts","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#organization","name":"InvestX \u2013 Crypto News, Trading Guide, Price Analysis & Forecasts","url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/03\/investx_logo_noir.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/03\/investx_logo_noir.svg","width":1,"height":1,"caption":"InvestX \u2013 Crypto News, Trading Guide, Price Analysis & Forecasts"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/bc6f1cb7f40666c19208864cd57bcdf0","name":"Simon Dumoulin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6f6b6e6d69989f61c37e48c55f30c3cd294f1fa50c5cb8aeae51939ffc3cee9c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6f6b6e6d69989f61c37e48c55f30c3cd294f1fa50c5cb8aeae51939ffc3cee9c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6f6b6e6d69989f61c37e48c55f30c3cd294f1fa50c5cb8aeae51939ffc3cee9c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Simon Dumoulin"},"description":"Analyste crypto, fort de 7 ans d'exp\u00e9rience en trading et d'un parcours solide dans l'industrie de l'iGaming et des cryptomonnaies, je couvre l'actualit\u00e9 crypto avec une approche rigoureuse et accessible. Passionn\u00e9 par la blockchain depuis 2019, j'ai publi\u00e9 plus de 1 200 articles et guides sur les cryptomonnaies, la DeFi et la blockchain, reconnus pour leur fiabilit\u00e9 et leur clart\u00e9.\u2028 Sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans le trading on-chain et l'analyse des mouvements de baleines, je d\u00e9crypte les flux blockchain pour anticiper les tendances avant qu'elles ne deviennent \u00e9videntes. L'un de mes articles a \u00e9t\u00e9 cit\u00e9 par \u00c9ric Larchev\u00eaque, cofondateur de Ledger, t\u00e9moignant de la qualit\u00e9 et de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de mes analyses.\u2028 Mon objectif reste inchang\u00e9 : rendre la crypto compr\u00e9hensible pour tous, des d\u00e9butants aux investisseurs confirm\u00e9s. Suivez-moi sur LinkedIn et X pour ne manquer aucune analyse.","sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/SimonDml1"],"url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/author\/simon_redacteur\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/47"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29243"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29243\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29258,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29243\/revisions\/29258"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}