{"id":29526,"date":"2026-05-20T11:33:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T10:33:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=29526"},"modified":"2026-05-20T11:33:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T10:33:56","slug":"polymarket-iran-profits-insider-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-iran-profits-insider-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket: $2.4M in profits on Iran &#8211; Insider trading?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"nine-wallets-80-positions-98-win-rate\">Nine wallets, 80 positions, 98% win rate <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The case has sent shockwaves through the <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/\">crypto<\/a> ecosystem. According to onchain detectives at <strong>Bubblemaps<\/strong>, a cluster of <strong>nine wallets<\/strong> generated massive profits by betting exclusively on US military actions in the <strong>Middle East<\/strong>. These addresses, created just days before the first American strikes in <strong>late February 2026<\/strong>, boasted a <strong>98% win rate<\/strong> across more than <strong>80 positions<\/strong>. This level of performance has less to do with <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/zcash-price-prediction\/\">technical analysis<\/a> and more to do with access to classified information. <strong>Nicolas Vaiman<\/strong>, CEO of <strong>Bubblemaps<\/strong>, described this activity as the &#8220;craziest pattern ever seen on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/prediction\/polymarket\/bet\/\">Polymarket<\/a><\/strong>&#8220;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These shadow traders anticipated major geopolitical events with surgical precision. They predicted the <strong>exact date of the US strikes<\/strong>, the removal of Iranian Supreme Leader <strong>Ali Khamenei<\/strong>, and the announcement of the ceasefire. The statistical probability of achieving such a success rate on <strong>low probability<\/strong> bets purely by chance is infinitesimal. This type of performance brings to mind documented cases of institutional pump and dump schemes but in an unprecedented geopolitical format. The blockchain made it possible to track every movement with a level of precision that traditional financial markets simply cannot offer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To cover their tracks, these <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/hype-eth-xrp-crypto-market\/\">crypto whales<\/a> deliberately lost small amounts on minor bets. This tactical sophistication was designed to outsmart onchain surveillance algorithms. The funds were then quickly extracted through centralized exchanges like Bybit, Binance and <strong>HTX<\/strong>. The speed and method of this <strong>capital exfiltration<\/strong> reinforce the theory of an operation orchestrated by insiders with classified information. The immutable transparency of the blockchain ultimately backfired on the alleged perpetrators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"fr\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8 Un cluster de 9 comptes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Polymarket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Polymarket<\/a> vient d&#39;empocher 2,4 M$ avec 98 % de winrate sur 80+ paris militaires.<br><br>Une investigation de <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bubblemaps?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@bubblemaps<\/a> a remont\u00e9 le r\u00e9seau \u00e0 partir du march\u00e9 li\u00e9 \u00e0 la premi\u00e8re frappe US sur l&#39;Iran du 28 f\u00e9vrier.<br><br>Le point de d\u00e9part : 4 wallets connect\u00e9s,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/i5hlFJ90GY\">https:\/\/t.co\/i5hlFJ90GY<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ad1i69tm88\">pic.twitter.com\/ad1i69tm88<\/a><\/p>&mdash; France Cryptos \ud83d\udd17 (@FranceCryptos) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FranceCryptos\/status\/2056651647900594280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"prediction-markets-a-20-billion-bull-run\">Prediction markets: A 20 billion bull run <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The craze for <strong>prediction markets<\/strong> shows no signs of slowing down. According to <strong>TRM Labs<\/strong>, monthly volumes on these platforms have skyrocketed, jumping from <strong>$1.2 billion<\/strong> in early <strong>2025<\/strong> to nearly <strong>$20 billion<\/strong> by early <strong>2026<\/strong>. This bull run is driven by the <strong>financialization of geopolitical events<\/strong>, which are now traded with the same enthusiasm as Bitcoin or Ethereum. The democratization of these platforms has created a liquid market accessible to everyone, including the most unscrupulous actors. Volume has become both a strength and a structural vulnerability for this ecosystem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This abundant liquidity inevitably attracts malicious <strong>smart money<\/strong>. Last month, a US Army soldier was indicted for using <strong>classified intelligence<\/strong> to pocket over <strong>$400,000<\/strong> on <strong>Polymarket<\/strong>. This case, combined with the recent suspicious gains regarding Iran, highlights a new form of <strong>insider trading<\/strong> where national defense secrets become an unfair competitive advantage. Crypto trading on prediction markets reveals its darkest corners here. Retail investors find themselves structurally disadvantaged against actors holding sovereign information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paradox of <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> lies in its <strong>absolute transparency<\/strong>. While identities remain anonymous, every transaction is immutable and public on the blockchain. Investigators can track capital flows and identify <strong>statistical anomalies<\/strong> with a precision that traditional markets cannot provide. This double edged sword of Web3 transparency paves the way for federal investigations unprecedented in the history of decentralized finance. The <strong>CFTC<\/strong> is now intensifying its surveillance of these platforms, a development that operators can no longer ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" src=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/20112044\/Capture-decran-2026-05-20-a-11.00.57-1-1024x516-1.jpg\" alt=\"TRM Labs chart showing monthly prediction market volume increase from $1.2 billion to $20 billion between January 2025 and January 2026\" class=\"wp-image-29524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/20112044\/Capture-decran-2026-05-20-a-11.00.57-1-1024x516-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/20112044\/Capture-decran-2026-05-20-a-11.00.57-1-1024x516-1-300x151.jpg 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/20112044\/Capture-decran-2026-05-20-a-11.00.57-1-1024x516-1-768x387.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"regulation-comes-to-polymarket\">Regulation comes to Polymarket <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>American regulators are facing an unprecedented challenge. <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> operates in a DeFi space where smart contracts automatically execute bets without any identifiable intermediary. However, the <strong>CFTC<\/strong> has sufficient legal tools to prosecute individuals who use non public information for profit, regardless of the medium used. The indictment of the US soldier proved that onchain anonymity does not guarantee legal impunity. Federal investigators have now mastered <strong>clustering analysis<\/strong> techniques to link anonymous wallets to real identities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question of implementing <strong>KYC<\/strong> (Know Your Customer) measures on <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> divides the crypto community. On one hand, these measures would reduce the risk of insider trading and protect retail investors. On the other, they would break the growth momentum and the fundamental appeal of a permissionless DeFi platform. This dilemma is at the heart of the crypto trend toward institutional compliance. The crypto taxation applied to these prediction gains also provides a legal angle of attack for authorities. A regulatory <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/hype-eth-xrp-crypto-market\/\">bear market<\/a> in this segment seems inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>uncensorable<\/strong> nature of the blockchain nevertheless remains the last line of defense for these platforms. Even if <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> were shut down in one jurisdiction, decentralized copies would immediately emerge on other networks. This phenomenon illustrates the fundamental tension between <strong>individual sovereignty<\/strong> guaranteed by cryptography and national security imperatives. Developers will have to find a balance between openness and compliance to avoid a forced administrative shutdown. The confidence fear and greed index toward these platforms is now in uncertain territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">KYC is now available on Polymarket.<br><br>The Geographic Restrictions page now includes a footnote stating that completing KYC will grant you the lowest possible latency.<br><br>Additionally, a Google Form has been released where you can upload documents for KYC or KYB.<br><br>Is the era of\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Liy2bDCTiQ\">pic.twitter.com\/Liy2bDCTiQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ProMint (@ProMint_X) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProMint_X\/status\/2054445057919344762?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"can-polymarket-survive-the-scandals\">Can Polymarket survive the scandals?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The credibility of <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> is now being put to the test. While the platform continues to break records for active users, the proven presence of <strong>government insiders<\/strong> could trigger a <strong>brutal confidence correction<\/strong> among retail investors. The fundamental question is simple: why bet if the dice are loaded by actors with classified information? This question eats away at the core value proposition of prediction markets, which relies on the <strong>aggregation of dispersed information<\/strong> to converge toward the truth. A rigged market cannot fulfill this epistemic function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors looking to invest in crypto on these platforms must now factor in this <strong>structural asymmetric risk<\/strong>. Participating in a market where certain actors hold sovereign information inaccessible to the general public is a form of uncompensated risk taking. Onchain transparency remains the best tool to identify these anomalies and protect retail capital. Onchain fundamental analysis tools like those from <strong>Bubblemaps<\/strong> play a crucial role here as a <strong>decentralized watchdog<\/strong>. Their ability to identify statistically impossible patterns is the best response the ecosystem can provide to these abuses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The future of prediction markets will depend on the ability of the Web3 community to self regulate before regulators impose restrictive frameworks. Mechanisms for <strong>statistical anomaly detection<\/strong> integrated directly into smart contracts could provide a technological answer to this problem. The confidence <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/zcash-price-prediction\/\">price prediction<\/a> for <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> remains negative in the short term as long as federal investigations remain open. The prediction market crypto bull run could well turn into a major regulatory correction if the industry does not take the lead. This case will go down as a turning point in the history of decentralized finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FranceCryptos\">FranceCryptos<\/a> on X<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.trmlabs.com\/fr\">TRM<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trmlabs.com\/fr\">Labs<\/a> <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ProMint_X\">ProMint_X<\/a> on X<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related Articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/hype-eth-xrp-crypto-market\/\">HYPE, ETH, XRP: What&#8217;s happening in the Crypto market?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/sui-price-analysis-rally\/\">SUI at a crucial support level: Will bulls ignite a 25% rally?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/near-protocol-price-analysis\/\">NEAR Protocol surges 11%: Key levels to watch<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mysterious wallets profited $2.4M on Polymarket by betting on the Iran conflict. Was it insider trading? Find out the details.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":29525,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":"crypto-news\/polymarket-iran-profits-insider-trading"},"categories":[10,52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-prediction-market"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Polymarket: Iran prediction market sees $2.4M profit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mysterious wallets profited $2.4M on Polymarket by betting on the Iran conflict. Was it insider trading? 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Passionn\u00e9 par la blockchain depuis 2019, j'ai publi\u00e9 plus de 1 200 articles et guides sur les cryptomonnaies, la DeFi et la blockchain, reconnus pour leur fiabilit\u00e9 et leur clart\u00e9.\\u2028 Sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans le trading on-chain et l'analyse des mouvements de baleines, je d\u00e9crypte les flux blockchain pour anticiper les tendances avant qu'elles ne deviennent \u00e9videntes. L'un de mes articles a \u00e9t\u00e9 cit\u00e9 par \u00c9ric Larchev\u00eaque, cofondateur de Ledger, t\u00e9moignant de la qualit\u00e9 et de la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de mes analyses.\\u2028 Mon objectif reste inchang\u00e9 : rendre la crypto compr\u00e9hensible pour tous, des d\u00e9butants aux investisseurs confirm\u00e9s. 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