{"id":29592,"date":"2026-05-21T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=29592"},"modified":"2026-05-21T14:40:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T13:40:10","slug":"world-cup-2026-predictions-crypto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/world-cup-2026-predictions-crypto\/","title":{"rendered":"Making predictions for the 2026 World Cup with Cryptocurrencies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"france-as-the-favorite-spain-close-behind-current-odds\">France as the favorite, Spain close behind: Current odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>France<\/strong> stands out as the clear favorite on <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/zcash-price-prediction\/\">prediction<\/a> markets with an <strong>18% probability on Kalshi<\/strong> and <strong>16.7% on <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/prediction\/kalshi\/bet\/\">Polymarket<\/a><\/strong>. <strong>Spain<\/strong>, the reigning European champion with <strong>33 undefeated matches<\/strong>, follows closely at <strong>16.6% on Kalshi<\/strong> and <strong>15.4% on Polymarket<\/strong>. <strong>England<\/strong> completes the podium at <strong>11.2%<\/strong> on both platforms. These three nations are attracting the bulk of institutional capital ahead of the kickoff on <strong>June 16<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The convergence between <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/prediction\/kalshi\/bet\/\">Kalshi<\/a><\/strong> and <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> on these probabilities validates the strength of the consensus. Price gaps of <strong>5 to 8 cents<\/strong> between the two platforms for the same team are frequently observed, creating arbitrage opportunities for attentive traders. The most active market remains &#8220;Which continent will win the World Cup?&#8221; with a <strong>71% chance attributed to Europe<\/strong>. These blockchain prediction markets price in injuries, lineups, and results in real time. Their <strong>94% accuracy score<\/strong> over a month reflects a higher reliability than traditional statistical models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Polymarket<\/strong> hosts <strong>72 active markets<\/strong> for the World Cup, covering the tournament winner, group qualifications, match results, and individual performances. <strong>Kalshi<\/strong> covers the same main markets with a more accessible interface. This aggregated volume of <strong>$345 million<\/strong> makes this World Cup the most traded sporting event in the history of crypto prediction markets. The final at <strong>MetLife Stadium<\/strong> on <strong>July 19<\/strong> is expected to be the peak of activity on the platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BREAKING: France overtakes Spain as World Cup favorites <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Tkn0bdsBxZ\">pic.twitter.com\/Tkn0bdsBxZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Kalshi FC (@KalshiFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KalshiFC\/status\/2048418811552886912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-do-these-prediction-platforms-work\">How do these prediction platforms work?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Polymarket<\/strong> and <strong>Kalshi<\/strong> are <strong>prediction markets<\/strong> based on the blockchain. You deposit stablecoins like <strong>USDC<\/strong> to buy shares on a sporting outcome. If your prediction is correct, each share is worth <strong>$1<\/strong>. If not, it is worth <strong>$0<\/strong>. Smart contracts automatically settle the winnings without any human intervention. The rules are hardcoded and <strong>cannot be altered<\/strong> along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buying a &#8220;France to win&#8221; share at <strong>$0.18<\/strong> pays out <strong>$1<\/strong> if Les Bleus lift the trophy, representing a net gain of <strong>+456%<\/strong>. Unlike traditional bookmakers, these platforms do not have an <strong>operator margin<\/strong> baked into the odds. Prices solely reflect the real supply and demand of the participants. You can also sell your position at any time during the tournament if the probabilities shift in your favor. This <strong>total flexibility<\/strong> is a major advantage over the fixed odds of bookmakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The difference between the two platforms is clear. <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> is <strong>crypto native<\/strong>: higher liquidity, lower fees, and <strong>72 active markets<\/strong>. <strong>Kalshi<\/strong> is regulated by the <strong>CFTC<\/strong> and accessible directly via credit card without a crypto wallet. It is the ideal option for beginners who do not want to manage cryptocurrencies directly. In both cases, you can track the evolution of probabilities in real time throughout the tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"tutorial-making-your-first-predictions-on-polymarket\">Tutorial: Making your first predictions on Polymarket<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is how to make your first predictions on the <strong>2026 World Cup<\/strong> in a few simple steps:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-&gt; <strong>Step 1 \u2014 Create your account<\/strong> Go to <strong>polymarket.com<\/strong> and sign up with your email or a crypto wallet. Less than <strong>2 minutes<\/strong> is all it takes.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"284\" height=\"178\" src=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142452\/images-56-1-1.jpeg\" alt=\"Signing up on Polymarket\" class=\"wp-image-29587\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>-&gt; <strong>Step 2 \u2014 Install MetaMask<\/strong> Download MetaMask on your browser. Create your wallet and write down your <strong>recovery phrase<\/strong> in a safe place. This is the key to accessing your funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-&gt; <strong>Step 3 \u2014 Fund your account<\/strong> Deposit <strong>USDC<\/strong> via <strong>credit card<\/strong>, <strong>bank transfer<\/strong>, or from an exchange like Coinbase or Binance. <strong>USDC<\/strong> is a stablecoin that is always worth <strong>$1<\/strong>, making it ideal for starting out without exposure to volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"301\" height=\"167\" src=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142457\/images-7-1-1.png\" alt=\"Funding your account with USDC\" class=\"wp-image-29588\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>-&gt; <strong>Step 4 \u2014 Find the World Cup markets<\/strong> In the search bar, type &#8220;<strong>FIFA World Cup<\/strong>&#8220;. You will access the <strong>72 active markets<\/strong>: tournament winner, group qualifications, match results, and individual performances.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142508\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.03.48-1024x624-1.png\" alt=\"FIFA World Cup active markets on Polymarket\" class=\"wp-image-29589\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142508\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.03.48-1024x624-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142508\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.03.48-1024x624-1-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142508\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.03.48-1024x624-1-768x468.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>-&gt; <strong>Step 5 \u2014 Take your position<\/strong> Click on the outcome you anticipate. <strong>France at $0.18<\/strong> means an <strong>18%<\/strong> chance of winning according to the crowd. If <strong>France<\/strong> wins the World Cup, you get back <strong>$1<\/strong> per share purchased. You can <strong>sell at any time<\/strong> during the tournament if the probabilities shift.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142511\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.02.16-1024x563-1.png\" alt=\"Polymarket chart showing 2026 World Cup winner odds, France at 17.9% and Spain at 16.8% with $1.08 billion volume\" class=\"wp-image-29590\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142511\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.02.16-1024x563-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142511\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.02.16-1024x563-1-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/21142511\/Capture-decran-2026-05-21-a-15.02.16-1024x563-1-768x422.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"polymarket-blocked-vpns-and-responsible-predictions\">Polymarket blocked, VPNs and responsible predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Polymarket<\/strong> has been geoblocked in few country since <strong>November 2024<\/strong>. The platform is considered an unlicensed gaming operator on French territory. <strong>Kalshi<\/strong>, on the other hand, is restricted to US residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is worth noting that using a <strong>VPN<\/strong> is a common practice for millions of internet users worldwide, for various reasons ranging from privacy to accessing geo restricted content. Each user remains responsible for the <strong>applicable legal framework<\/strong> in their country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KalshiFC\">KalshiFC<\/a> on X<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/fr\/predictions\/champions-league-final\">Polymarket<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/\">Kalshi<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related Articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/dash-price-prediction\/\">Will DASH surge to $58? Crypto price analysis<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/psg-arsenal-crypto-betting-final\/\">PSG vs. Arsenal: How to bet on the Champions League final with Crypto<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/zec-hype-doge-btc-alt-season\/\">Alt Season: Will ZEC, HYPE, DOGE, and BTC explode?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bet on the 2026 World Cup with crypto! Explore how to make predictions on Polymarket and Kalshi, and see which teams are favored.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":29591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"World Cup Predictions","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Predict the 2026 World Cup with Crypto: Polymarket & Kalshi","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Bet on the 2026 World Cup with crypto! Explore how to make predictions on Polymarket and Kalshi, and see which teams are favored.","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":"crypto-news\/world-cup-2026-predictions-crypto"},"categories":[10,52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-prediction-market"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predict the 2026 World Cup with Crypto: Polymarket &amp; Kalshi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bet on the 2026 World Cup with crypto! 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