From the very beginning of the conflict, Iran activated its major geopolitical lever: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/strong> This strategic chokepoint, effectively locked down by Tehran since the start of the war, was previously the transit route for approximately 20% of the hydrocarbons<\/strong> consumed globally. Its near total blockade sent oil prices soaring and shook the global economy. Even gold and silver suffered violent crashes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This blockade has become the primary bargaining chip in negotiations.<\/strong> The reopening of Hormuz represents the number one objective for Washington, the markets, and the global economy \u2014 it is the focal point around which everything else revolves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The American peace plan is based on a 15 point framework submitted to the Iranian government.<\/strong> Among the publicly disclosed US demands are: the dismantling of existing nuclear capabilities, a commitment to never pursue nuclear weapons, the cessation of all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the handover of the enriched uranium stockpile to the IAEA, the dismantling of the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow sites, and granting the IAEA full access to nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For its part, Iran has its own demands.<\/strong> Tehran insists on the ability to collect tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, guarantees against the resumption of hostilities, an end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the lifting of all sanctions, and the preservation of its ballistic missile program without negotiations to limit it. A US official described these demands as “ridiculous and unrealistic”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is the unexpected pressure tactic complicating the negotiations. In a lengthy social media post, Trump listed the leaders of Muslim majority countries he had spoken with, stating that “all these countries should be obliged, at a minimum, to simultaneously sign the Abraham Accords”<\/strong> \u2014 the normalization agreements with Israel that he initiated in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A high level Iranian delegation, including chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, traveled to Doha on May 25 for talks, marking the first visit of its kind since the Iranian retaliatory strikes against Gulf nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran, on the other hand, has categorically rejected any idea of normalization with Israel,<\/strong> calling it “wishful thinking”. Tehran also warned that the deal could be “outright canceled” due to ongoing disagreements over the unfreezing of 100 billion dollars in Iranian assets. The White House itself acknowledged that the agreement “could still fail”.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe State of Negotiations: A 14 to 15 Point Agreement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Regional Dimension: Trump Pushes for Gulf and Israel Normalization<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n