The precedent from January 2024 is enlightening. When volatility hit 45<\/strong>, ETH was trading around $2,230<\/strong>. In 2.5 months, the price reached $4,170<\/strong>, representing a +87%<\/strong> increase. Volatility then surged back to 73<\/strong>, confirming the classic pattern: compression, accumulation, expansion, followed by a significant rise. This cycle has repeated with striking regularity during the last two bull runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The systemic dimension strengthens the analysis. Bitcoin simultaneously shows a DVOL close to 35<\/strong>. The simultaneous compression of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization increases the statistical probability of a coordinated violent movement. Both assets appear to be preparing together for a major directional expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n For over 12 months<\/strong>, Ethereum has been consolidating above the $1,900-$2,000<\/strong> zone. This prolonged lateral movement is not a structural weakness. It is typical behavior of institutional accumulation before a new cycle. Strong hands do not buy in euphoria they accumulate in general indifference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The immediate support\/resistance to watch is between $1,920 and $1,950<\/strong>. This zone represents a confluence between the Fibonacci retracement of 0.786<\/strong> and the former resistance turned support. If this level is broken, the critical support at $1,850<\/strong> would correspond to the last floor before a deeper shakeout. The weekly RSI is hovering around 45-48<\/strong>, neutral, with no overextension in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the upside, the pivot resistance is positioned at $2,150-$2,200<\/strong>, which is the median band of the weekly Bollinger Bands. A weekly close above this level would trigger algorithms and swing trading breakouts. The 50 and 200 EMA on the monthly remain bullish. The zones $2,500-$2,800<\/strong> represent the first acceleration target, with no major intermediate resistance identifiable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This volatility compression cannot be analyzed outside the tense fundamental context surrounding ETH. David Hoffman<\/strong>, co-founder of Bankless<\/strong>, has sold all of his ETH. His thesis is clear: Ethereum has succeeded technologically but has failed to establish ETH as a currency. The layer 2 solutions have scaled the network but capture value at the expense of the native token.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ETH\/BTC ratio has hit new lows around 0.027<\/strong>, with 13 consecutive red candles<\/strong> over three days. This has never been seen in the history of the ratio. These signals indicate a structural rotation towards assets with more direct value capture like Solana, Near Protocol, or Arbitrum. An asset can underperform its sector and still rebound strongly in absolute value simultaneously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the network fundamentals remain strong. Over $250 billion<\/strong> in stablecoins are deployed on Ethereum. DeFi activity is at record levels on L2. The staking shows 3,394,545 ETH<\/strong> queued against only 64 ETH<\/strong> waiting to be unstaked, a structural imbalance of 53,000x<\/strong> favoring supply scarcity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Ethereum](\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/28084614\/Capture-decran-2026-05-28-a-09.16.53-1024x273-1.png\")
Technical Structure: Key Levels and Zones<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"ETH\/USD](\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/28093111\/ETHUSD_2026-05-28_10-29-12-1024x641.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nFundamental Context: Why the Situation is Divisive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n