{"id":29904,"date":"2026-05-29T07:32:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T06:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=29904"},"modified":"2026-05-29T10:55:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:55:06","slug":"polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket: Saylor&#8217;s 84% chance of selling Bitcoin in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-movement-that-shook-the-community\">The Movement That Shook the Community<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lookonchain<\/strong>, the undisputed reference for tracking whale movements, dropped a bombshell on Friday morning: MicroStrategy \u2014 now rebranded as Strategy \u2014 has just <strong>deposited 411.48 BTC on Coinbase Prime,<\/strong> amounting to approximately <strong>30.3 million dollars<\/strong> at current prices. Within hours, the debate ignited on X and in trading groups worldwide. Is Michael Saylor, the most famous <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-investing\/buy\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> maximalist on the planet, about to sell?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Is Michael Saylor&#39;s <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Strategy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Strategy<\/a> about to sell <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a>?<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Strategy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Strategy<\/a> just deposited 411.48 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a>($30.3M) into <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/CoinbasePrime?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#CoinbasePrime<\/a>.<br><br>On Polymarket, the odds of <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/MicroStrategy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#MicroStrategy<\/a> selling <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> before Dec. 31, 2026 have now reached 84%.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FgZG2ZWlVi\">https:\/\/t.co\/FgZG2ZWlVi<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/R3Tm8YJJFu\">pic.twitter.com\/R3Tm8YJJFu<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Lookonchain (@lookonchain) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/lookonchain\/status\/2060181007844979024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 29, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The immediate response from the prediction markets is unequivocal. On Polymarket, the market for <strong>&#8220;MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by Dec 31, 2026&#8221;<\/strong> now shows <strong>84%<\/strong> for &#8220;Yes,&#8221; with a volume exceeding 33 million dollars. The shorter deadline \u2014 the end of June \u2014 stands at <strong>55%<\/strong>. These figures do not reflect <strong>anticipation of a massive sale.<\/strong> They merely indicate the probability that Strategy will sell at least one satoshi \u2014 a deliberately low threshold that makes the &#8220;No&#8221; at 16% particularly bold to defend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"an-overleveraged-company-serving-an-ideology\">An Overleveraged Company Serving an Ideology<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To understand why this transfer is causing such a stir, it&#8217;s essential to recall what Strategy is in 2026. The company holds over <strong>500,000 BTC<\/strong> acquired through massive convertible debt raises and repeated capital increases. It has literally transformed its balance sheet into a giant Bitcoin proxy, taking the narrative of &#8220;Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset&#8221; to its peak and inspiring dozens of imitator companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the macro context has changed. Bitcoin is trading around <strong>73,500 dollars<\/strong>, far from its ATH of <strong>126,000 dollars in October 2025<\/strong>, representing a nearly 40% correction. Interest on convertible debt is accumulating, promised dividends to investors require cash flow, and net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs weigh on overall sentiment. In this context, a deposit on Coinbase Prime, an institutional platform used for custody, OTC transactions, collateral, and potentially sales, takes on considerable symbolic significance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"this-does-not-necessarily-mean-a-sale\">This Does Not Necessarily Mean a Sale<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Saylor&#8217;s defenders are quick to point out that Coinbase Prime is not solely a selling platform. The company regularly uses it as a <strong>&#8220;deep vault&#8221;<\/strong> for internal management of its positions, collateral on its credit lines, and inter-institutional transfers. Strategy has made similar moves in the past without an immediate sale following.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Saylor himself recently posted a simple &#8220;HODL&#8221; along with a motivational video on X. But his radio silence on this specific transfer is precisely fueling the theories that his supporters are trying to quench. The Bitcoin community is divided between those who see a simple cash movement and those, more cynical, who have dubbed their hero &#8220;Michul Sellor&#8221; and anticipate the end of an era. On the other hand, he also stated last week that they might sell this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, what many observers are closely watching is not Saylor&#8217;s tweets, but the <strong>calendar of convertible bonds.<\/strong> Strategy has raised billions through convertible notes with maturity and conversion dates approaching. In the coming quarters, active management of the Bitcoin treasury could become a necessary accounting measure rather than an ideological choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8JUST IN: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/saylor?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@saylor<\/a> is back underwater on his Bitcoin buys, with bitcoin:native falling below the $75,700 average purchase price. His 843,738 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> position is now sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $1.94B. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xQVnnwd1kQ\">pic.twitter.com\/xQVnnwd1kQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SolanaFloor\/status\/2059990467652280721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 28, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The dilemma is classic yet brutal. Continuing to HODL exposed to a correction towards 65,000-70,000 dollars creates increasing pressure on an already strained balance sheet. Selling a portion to avoid further <strong>losses<\/strong> and pay interest is financially rational. Indeed, Saylor is back in the red with a current high loss of nearly <strong>2 billion dollars.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this risks breaking the narrative that has driven the stock value of MSTR. It is precisely this tension between ideology and financial reality that the 84% on Polymarket seeks to price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-this-says-about-the-bitcoin-market-in-2026\">What This Says About the Bitcoin Market in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This episode is part of a broader movement beyond just the Strategy case. As Anthropic flirts with a trillion-dollar valuation in secondary markets and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/halving-date\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> exits the Top 10 of global assets,<\/strong> companies that have built their identity on corporate HODLing face the same question as all other investors: how far can the<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sale by Strategy would be interpreted as a short-term bearish signal on sentiment, even if limited. It would <strong>change nothing about the fundamentals<\/strong> of the Bitcoin protocol itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next on-chain movements from Strategy via Arkham and Lookonchain remain the most immediate signal. The upcoming quarterly financial statements from MicroStrategy will provide visibility into the reality of the balance sheet. And Saylor&#8217;s behavior on X, whether a public purchase or a defensive tweet, would itself be a significant market signal in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At 84% on Polymarket, the market is betting that pressure will ultimately prevail over dogma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/lookonchain\/status\/2060181007844979024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">LookONchain<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/?r=roroivx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Polymarket<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SolanaFloor\/status\/2059990467652280721\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">SolanaFloor<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related Articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-drop-67k-liquidity-crisis-june-5\/\">Bitcoin faces potential drop to $67k: Liquidity crisis expected until June 5th<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/zcash-zec-440-may\/\">Zcash: Will ZEC reach $440 before the end of May?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/05\/28\/polymarket-kalshi-spain-ban\/\">Polymarket and Kalshi banned in Spain: Regulation goes into overdrive<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket&#8217;s odds surge! Michael Saylor&#8217;s Bitcoin sale in 2026 has an 84% chance. Discover the factors behind this potential Coinbase transfer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":29903,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"Polymarket","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Saylor's Bitcoin sell-off: Polymarket predicts 84% chance in 2026","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Polymarket's odds surge! Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sale in 2026 has an 84% chance. Discover the factors behind this potential Coinbase.","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":"crypto-news\/polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026"},"categories":[10,52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-prediction-market"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Saylor&#039;s Bitcoin sell-off: Polymarket predicts 84% chance in 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Polymarket&#039;s odds surge! Michael Saylor&#039;s Bitcoin sale in 2026 has an 84% chance. 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Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sale in 2026 has an 84% chance. Discover the factors behind this potential Coinbase.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/29103205\/Laction-des-prix-de-Cardano-et-les-niveaux-a-venir-3-7.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/05\/29103205\/Laction-des-prix-de-Cardano-et-les-niveaux-a-venir-3-7.jpg","width":840,"height":560,"caption":"coin Bitcoin sur un fond rouge et jaune"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/polymarket-saylor-bitcoin-2026\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Polymarket: Saylor&rsquo;s 84% chance of selling Bitcoin in 2026"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/","name":"InvestX \u2013 Crypto News, Trading Guide, Price Analysis & Forecasts","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#organization","name":"InvestX \u2013 Crypto News, Trading Guide, Price Analysis & Forecasts","url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/03\/investx_logo_noir.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/03\/investx_logo_noir.svg","width":1,"height":1,"caption":"InvestX \u2013 Crypto News, Trading Guide, Price Analysis & Forecasts"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/a99817b9d097ee5a69e24946de94c23a","name":"Charles Ledoux","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/47d3a48e5bca34238d22886640ecc684e7dd54ad63c435f7005f6b5a1e0ddf8c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/47d3a48e5bca34238d22886640ecc684e7dd54ad63c435f7005f6b5a1e0ddf8c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Charles Ledoux"},"description":"Je suis un analyste sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans les blockchains L1 et leurs fondamentaux comme Bitcoin, Kaspa, Monero, Chainlink ou encore Solana. Je suis \u00e9galement form\u00e9 au trading et \u00e0 l\u2019analyse technique depuis plus d\u2019un an sur le march\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies, mais \u00e9galement sur le forex et les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux comme l\u2019or ou le silver. J\u2019ai obtenu un dipl\u00f4me de la Crypto Academy sur les fondamentaux techniques du Bitcoin et poss\u00e8de une exp\u00e9rience de plus de 5 ans dans le journalisme et l\u2019\u00e9criture d\u2019articles p\u00e9dagogiques. J\u2019ai notamment \u00e9crit de nombreuses masterclass pour \u00e9duquer les nouveaux venus dans l'industrie et plus de 10 000 articles et news.J\u2019ai \u00e9galement pu interviewer de nombreux fondateurs et cr\u00e9ateurs de projets dans la crypto comme Marc Lebreton (chef marketing de la blockchain SUI), EJ Ayala (Coinbase US et Draftkings), et d\u2019autres projets comme Polyhedra (Eric Vreeland), Usual (Adli Takkal Bataille), ou encore Humanity Protocol (Jade Gu). J\u2019ai plong\u00e9 dans la cryptomonnaie il y a plus de 3 ans et continue de mettre tout en \u0153uvre pour fournir du contenu de qualit\u00e9, avec de l\u2019expertise et la neutralit\u00e9 attendue d\u2019un journaliste. Retrouvez moi aussi sur X pour des analyses et sur Linkedin pour me contacter.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/charles-ledoux-508392239\/","https:\/\/x.com\/charl3li"],"url":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/author\/charles-ledoux\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29904"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29904\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29910,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29904\/revisions\/29910"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}