{"id":30028,"date":"2026-06-04T18:29:05","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T17:29:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/06\/04\/bitcoin-4-year-moving-average-market-bottom\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T18:29:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T17:29:07","slug":"bitcoin-4-year-moving-average-market-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-4-year-moving-average-market-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin and Its 4-Year Moving Average: Here’s Where the Real Market Bottom Lies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin<\/strong> has been undergoing a sharp correction since the start of the week, shedding more than 5% in 24 hours and settling around $63,600<\/strong>. As market sentiment turns decidedly bearish, one historical indicator is resurfacing across on-chain analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 4-year moving average<\/strong> of BTC, rarely discussed during bull cycles, is reclaiming its significance during capitulation phases. And what it is signaling today deserves the attention of every serious investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several analysts agree on a critical support zone between $50,000 and $60,000<\/strong> \u2014 though signals diverge on just how deep the coming decline could go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Moving Average: A Historical Accumulation Signal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analyst Adam Livingston<\/strong> has highlighted an indicator that rarely makes headlines but has proven remarkably effective across long cycles: the Bitcoin 4-year moving average<\/strong>, currently sitting at $60,000<\/strong>. At this level, BTC is trading just 22.75% above<\/strong> that average \u2014 a historically narrow gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Livingston notes that across all available data, only 18.5% of valid trading days<\/strong> have recorded a smaller deviation than what we are seeing today. In other words, 81.5% of the time<\/strong>, Bitcoin<\/a> was more expensive relative to this moving average. This low percentile represents, in his view, a high-quality accumulation zone<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Historical data supports this thesis: buying BTC within this same relative undervaluation percentile would have turned $10,000 into approximately $56,600<\/strong>, compared to just $40,200 through daily DCA<\/strong><\/a> over the same time frame. A risk\/reward ratio that explains why this zone consistently attracts long-term accumulators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Massive Selling Pressure: On-Chain Signals Keep Piling Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the moving average, on-chain data<\/strong> confirms significant selling pressure. Analyst Ali Martinez<\/strong> reports that 54,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges<\/strong> over the past week \u2014 a spike in available supply that mechanically amplifies short-term downside pressure and has contributed to pushing the price back toward the lower end of the $60,000 range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Martinez also highlights that the breakdown below $72,000<\/strong> has weakened the broader market structure. Drawing on MVRV price bands<\/strong> (Market Value to Realized Value), he identifies the next major support zone between $50,000 and $54,000<\/strong> \u2014 implying an additional downside risk of roughly 15 to 20% from current levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/a><\/strong> are adding another layer of pressure: they are currently recording 13 consecutive days of net outflows<\/strong>, a clear signal of institutional disengagement<\/strong> that is weighing on overall sentiment. Analyst Bluntz<\/strong> goes even further, anticipating a wick below $58,000<\/strong> before any structural recovery, based on his reading of daily candle closes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

$60,000 or $50,000: Two Scenarios, One Cycle Logic<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The two scenarios are not necessarily contradictory. The $60,000<\/strong> level \u2014 coinciding with the 4-year moving average<\/strong> \u2014 represents a first-rate technical and on-chain support<\/strong>, historically associated with pre-bull accumulation phases. This is the zone where strong hands tend to absorb supply from panic sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if selling pressure from ETFs<\/strong> and exchange inflows persists, a temporary breach of this level remains plausible. In that case, the $50,000\u2013$54,000 zone<\/strong> identified by the MVRV bands would serve as the next safety net \u2014 a level that Bitcoin has not revisited since the beginning of the current bull cycle<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What both analyses share is the conviction that Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull cycle<\/a><\/strong>, and that corrections of this magnitude have, historically, consistently offered favorable entry points for patient investors. On-chain data is not signaling broad capitulation \u2014 it is signaling redistribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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