{"id":30230,"date":"2026-06-16T19:18:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T18:18:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/06\/16\/bitcoin-fomc-kevin-warsh-btc-price-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-06-16T19:18:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T18:18:29","slug":"bitcoin-fomc-kevin-warsh-btc-price-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-fomc-kevin-warsh-btc-price-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Faces Kevin Warsh’s First FOMC: What History Says About BTC Price"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin<\/strong> traders are holding their breath ahead of the first FOMC<\/strong> meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh<\/strong>. While markets are not pricing in any rate change, the event remains a major catalyst<\/strong>: every signal from the Fed<\/strong> has the potential to trigger sharp volatility<\/strong> on BTC<\/strong>. The current technical picture outlines two distinct scenarios, with key levels that traders absolutely cannot afford to ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin’s Technical Structure: Between Critical Support and Major Resistance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin<\/a> is trading within a technically charged zone. Immediate support<\/strong> sits around $95,000<\/strong>, a floor that has been tested on multiple occasions over recent weeks. Below that, the next line of defence is positioned near $90,000<\/strong>, a level that coincides with the 200-day moving average<\/strong> \u2014 a structural threshold for any sustainable bull run<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the resistance<\/strong> side, the market is running into the $100,000\u2013$102,000<\/strong> zone, a psychological and technical ceiling that BTC<\/strong> has struggled to close above on a weekly basis. A confirmed breakout<\/strong> above this level would open the door toward the previous ATH<\/strong> and potentially toward $110,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The RSI<\/strong> on the daily chart is hovering around 55, signalling a neutral to slightly bullish momentum with no overbought<\/strong> conditions in sight. The MACD<\/strong> is showing an early positive crossover, though the convergence remains fragile \u2014 not enough to validate a large-scale rally without a strong external catalyst<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish vs Bearish Scenario: What the FOMC Could Trigger<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Historically, FOMC<\/strong> meetings generate heightened volatility<\/strong> on Bitcoin<\/strong> in the 24 to 48 hours following the announcement. A dovish<\/strong> tone from Kevin Warsh<\/strong> \u2014 or simply rhetoric that comes in less hawkish than expected \u2014 could act as the trigger for a rally<\/strong> toward $105,000<\/strong>, or even a test of the ATH<\/strong>. Data from CoinGlass<\/strong> shows that short positions<\/strong> are building up below $97,000<\/strong>, creating the conditions for an explosive short squeeze<\/strong> in the event of a breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conversely, the bearish<\/strong> scenario plays out if Warsh<\/strong> adopts a restrictive tone or introduces uncertainty around the timeline for rate cuts. In that case, a correction<\/strong> toward $90,000<\/strong> becomes likely, with a Fibonacci retracement<\/a> at 38.2% converging precisely on that zone. A break below this level would expose BTC<\/strong> to a move back toward $85,000<\/strong>, invalidating the short-term bullish structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Implied volatility<\/strong> on BTC<\/strong> options (source: Deribit<\/strong>) remains elevated ahead of the event, confirming that the market is pricing in a strong directional move, whichever way it goes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Verdict: $100,000 as the Decisive Pivot for BTC<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The $100,000<\/strong> level stands out as the absolute pivot<\/strong> for this FOMC<\/strong> sequence. As long as Bitcoin<\/strong> trades below it, the structure remains indecisive and sellers retain a tactical edge. A daily close above this threshold in the post-FOMC<\/strong> session would represent the most bullish short-term signal possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders holding long<\/strong> positions should monitor the hourly RSI<\/strong> closely for any bearish divergence<\/strong> that could precede a swift correction<\/strong>. The next bullish target is set at $107,000\u2013$110,000<\/strong> in the event of a confirmed breakout, while the logical stop for long positions sits below $93,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The history of FOMC<\/strong> meetings under Powell’s Fed<\/strong> has shown that Bitcoin<\/strong> often reacts in the opposite direction to the initial response seen in traditional markets \u2014 a dynamic that experienced traders<\/a> will factor into their risk management around this event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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