{"id":31550,"date":"2026-08-15T10:44:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T09:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/08\/15\/clarity-act-galaxy-research-passage-odds-10-percent\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T10:44:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T09:44:43","slug":"clarity-act-galaxy-research-passage-odds-10-percent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/clarity-act-galaxy-research-passage-odds-10-percent\/","title":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act: Galaxy Research Slashes Passage Odds to Just 10%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Galaxy Research<\/strong> has just delivered a cold shower to the American crypto community. The research firm founded by Mike Novogratz<\/strong> has drastically cut the probability of the CLARITY Act passing before the end of the current legislative year to just 10%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind that blunt figure lie several structural roadblocks that lawmakers are struggling to overcome. Between unresolved ethical questions, disagreements over stablecoin<\/a><\/strong> yields, and a Senate window that is rapidly closing, the flagship piece of US crypto regulation is in serious trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a breakdown of a legislative setback that could redefine the regulatory timeline for the entire sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Galaxy Is Sounding the Alarm on the CLARITY Act<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The CLARITY Act<\/a><\/strong> is one of the most anticipated legislative proposals in the US crypto industry. The bill aims to establish a clear framework for distinguishing which digital assets fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)<\/strong> and which fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)<\/strong> \u2014 a monumental issue for thousands of blockchain projects operating in a legal grey zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But according to Galaxy Research<\/strong>‘s analysis, three major obstacles are currently blocking any meaningful progress<\/strong>. First: unresolved ethical questions surrounding insider treatment and the disclosure of sensitive information. Second: a persistent disagreement over whether stablecoins<\/strong> should be permitted to generate yield \u2014 a flashpoint between DeFi<\/a><\/strong> innovators and traditional regulators. Third: the legal protection of decentralized protocol developers, whose regulatory status remains deeply unclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These friction points are not new, but their accumulation without any credible near-term resolution has pushed Galaxy<\/strong> to sharply revise its projections. The firm notes that the bipartisan consensus required to pass such a bill remains extremely fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The September Senate Window: Too Narrow for Such a Complex Bill<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"CLARITY<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the substantive disagreements, Galaxy<\/strong> is also flagging a particularly constraining scheduling problem. When the US Senate<\/strong> returns from recess in September, the available legislative window will be extremely tight<\/strong>. Senators will be juggling competing budgetary and political priorities, leaving little room for a bill as technically complex and contentious as the CLARITY Act<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, even a last-minute agreement between Republicans and Democrats on the outstanding sticking points would likely not be enough to guarantee a vote before the session ends. Galaxy<\/strong> now considers a delay to 2026 the most probable outcome \u2014 which would place the bill squarely within an even more unpredictable electoral cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the crypto industry, this setback is far from trivial. The absence of a clear regulatory framework continues to hold back institutional investment<\/strong> and maintains a heavy legal uncertainty for exchanges, token issuers, and DeFi<\/strong> protocols operating out of the United States. Market participants will therefore have to navigate the regulatory status quo for several more months \u2014 a reality that is feeding caution across market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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