{"id":31615,"date":"2026-08-17T13:02:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T12:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/08\/17\/bitcoin-200-week-moving-average-bear-market-2022\/"},"modified":"2026-08-17T13:02:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T12:02:13","slug":"bitcoin-200-week-moving-average-bear-market-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-200-week-moving-average-bear-market-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Loses Its 200-Week Moving Average: Is the 2022 Bear Market Playing Out Again?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin has just broken through a technical threshold that analysts have been watching for several weeks. The weekly close below the 200-week moving average (200W MA)<\/strong> is immediately bringing back memories of the 2022 bear market<\/strong> \u2014 and traders are making no effort to hide their concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This signal is far from trivial: historically, every time BTC<\/strong> has convincingly lost this level on a confirmed basis, the correction that followed was severe and prolonged. The question now forcing itself onto the table: is this a false signal, or the beginning of a new structural downtrend?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five key factors help explain what this move actually means for the Bitcoin market this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 200-Week MA Lost: A Rarely Seen Technical Signal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The 200-week moving average<\/strong> is one of the most respected indicators in Bitcoin<\/strong> technical analysis. It represents the underlying trend across nearly four years of price action and has historically served as a floor during capitulation phases. Losing it on a confirmed weekly close is crossing a red line for many institutional portfolio managers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last time Bitcoin<\/strong> closed below this level was in 2022<\/strong>, in the midst of the post-Terra\/LUNA<\/strong> and FTX<\/strong> collapse. BTC subsequently plunged to around $15,500<\/strong> before finding a lasting bottom. Traders who monitor long-term market structure see this signal as a serious warning, not mere market noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the market sentiment front, data from CoinGlass<\/strong> shows a rise in short positions on BTC futures contracts, a sign that professional traders are anticipating further selling pressure in the near term. The funding rate<\/strong> has turned negative across several major exchanges, confirming a dominant bearish bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five Factors Defining the Bitcoin Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the pure technical signal, several macro and on-chain elements are complicating the market picture this week. The first factor is Bitcoin’s growing correlation with equity markets<\/strong>. BTC is increasingly moving in lockstep with the Nasdaq<\/strong>, and any deterioration in risk-off sentiment amplifies the pressure on crypto assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second factor: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows<\/a><\/strong> in the US are showing signs of slowing, with net outflows recorded on several recent trading sessions according to CryptoQuant<\/strong> data. This withdrawal of institutional capital is weighing directly on the structural demand that had underpinned the late 2024 rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third element to watch is liquidity levels<\/strong> around key support zones. On-chain data reveals a concentration of potential liquidations below $70,000<\/strong> \u2014 a level that, if tested, could trigger a cascade effect. Fourth: the behavior of miner wallets<\/strong>, which have begun increasing transfers to exchanges \u2014 a classic signal of incoming selling pressure. Finally, the fifth factor: the macro calendar, with upcoming Fed<\/strong> decisions remaining an external catalyst capable of reversing or amplifying any technical scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022 or Just a Correction: What On-Chain Data Is Saying<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Mechanically comparing 2025 to 2022 has its limits. In 2022, the market was operating in a context of aggressive rate hikes<\/strong> and the collapse of entire ecosystems (Terra<\/strong>, Celsius<\/strong>, FTX<\/strong>). Today, spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/a><\/strong> exist, institutional demand remains structurally present, and the April 2024 halving<\/a><\/strong> has not yet fully transmitted its historical effects through the price cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On-chain metrics add important nuance to the picture: the MVRV Z-Score<\/strong> is not sitting in extreme capitulation territory as it was in November 2022, and the SOPR<\/strong> (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicates that current sellers are still realizing only moderate losses \u2014 not a full-blown capitulation. These signals suggest the market is going through a severe correction rather than a confirmed structural bear market<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The $72,000 to $74,000<\/strong> zone now represents the immediate resistance level that needs to be reclaimed in order to invalidate the short-term bearish scenario. As long as BTC continues to trade below the 200W MA on a weekly basis, caution remains warranted \u2014 and bulls will need to deliver a convincing show of strength to turn market sentiment back around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Related articles :<\/h3>\n\n\n\n