{"id":31666,"date":"2026-08-18T20:01:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T19:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/08\/18\/bitcoin-vaneck-capitulation-signals-correction\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T20:01:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T19:01:48","slug":"bitcoin-vaneck-capitulation-signals-correction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-vaneck-capitulation-signals-correction\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: VanEck Detects 8 Out of 12 Capitulation Signals \u2014 Is the Correction Nearing Its End?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

VanEck<\/strong>, one of the giants of asset management, has just published an analysis that has the entire crypto market paying close attention. According to the firm, 8 of the 12 capitulation indicators it tracks are currently active<\/strong> on Bitcoin<\/strong> \u2014 a threshold historically associated with market bottoms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long-term holders<\/strong> have aggressively reduced their positions, on-chain<\/strong> data is sending mixed signals, and overall sentiment remains depressed. Yet it is precisely in this kind of environment that trend reversals<\/strong> tend to take shape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a breakdown of an analysis that could reshape how the Bitcoin<\/strong> market is read in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8 Signals Out of 12: What VanEck’s Capitulation Framework Really Reveals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

VanEck<\/strong> relies on a proprietary framework of 12 capitulation indicators<\/strong> to identify potential turning points on Bitcoin<\/strong>. When the majority of these signals activate simultaneously, the firm considers the market to have entered an advanced capitulation zone<\/strong> \u2014 one historically favorable for strategic accumulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the signals currently active, several are classic on-chain<\/strong> metrics: miner margin compression<\/strong>, declining trading volume on centralized exchanges, and a contraction in the number of active addresses. These indicators, cross-referenced with sentiment data such as the Fear & Greed Index<\/strong><\/a>, paint a coherent picture of a market in a surrender phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What sets VanEck’s<\/strong> analysis apart from a simple bearish observation is its systematic and quantitative<\/strong> nature. The firm does not rely on qualitative observations alone \u2014 it applies a rigorous scoring methodology, allowing it to compare the current situation to previous capitulation episodes, most notably those of June 2022<\/strong> and November 2022<\/strong>, two major bottoms from the previous bear cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Long-Term Holders Offload Positions: 356,000 BTC Sold in One Month<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One of the most striking signals in this analysis is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs)<\/strong>. Over the past month alone, these participants \u2014 generally regarded as the market’s strongest hands \u2014 have offloaded approximately 356,000 Bitcoin<\/strong>, pushing their share of circulating supply below the symbolic threshold of 60%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This wave of mass distribution<\/strong> can be read in two ways. On one hand, it reflects genuine selling pressure and an erosion of conviction even among the most seasoned holders. On the other, LTH capitulation<\/strong> has historically been one of the most reliable signals of proximity to a market bottom<\/strong>: once the last sellers have closed their positions, the structural downward pressure tends to exhaust itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On TradingView<\/strong>, Bitcoin’s<\/strong> price action<\/strong> reflects this tension: key support levels are being tested repeatedly without a clean breakdown, suggesting a gradual absorption of supply by new buyers. Volatility remains elevated, but rejection candles at the lows indicate growing resistance to further downside. Bitcoin Under Selling Pressure: Can the Key $64,000 Support Level Hold?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four Missing Signals: Why Caution Remains Warranted<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While 8 active signals out of 12 represent a significant alert level, VanEck<\/strong> notes that 4 indicators remain outside the capitulation zone<\/strong>. This gap is not trivial: during the most clear-cut capitulations in Bitcoin’s<\/strong> history \u2014 such as December 2018<\/strong> and November 2022<\/strong> \u2014 the score reached or exceeded 10 out of 12 before the market formed a lasting bottom<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the metrics still absent from the capitulation dashboard, one can reasonably expect indicators tied to spot Bitcoin ETF flows<\/strong>, open interest on derivatives markets (tracked via CoinGlass<\/strong><\/a>), and funding rates<\/strong> on perpetual contracts. As long as these elements have not flipped, the risk of another leg lower cannot be entirely ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VanEck’s analysis does not constitute a buy signal in itself \u2014 the firm states this explicitly. What it does offer is a structured analytical framework<\/strong> for assessing where the current correction cycle stands. For investors who track Bitcoin<\/strong> cycles with discipline, 8 signals out of 12 represents a level of maximum attention \u2014 without yet confirming an imminent reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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