{"id":31726,"date":"2026-08-20T15:51:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T14:51:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/08\/20\/xrp-reclaims-1-dollar-elliott-wave-analysis-bullish-bearish-scenarios\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T15:51:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T14:51:18","slug":"xrp-reclaims-1-dollar-elliott-wave-analysis-bullish-bearish-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/xrp-reclaims-1-dollar-elliott-wave-analysis-bullish-bearish-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"XRP Reclaims $1: Two Elliott Wave Analysts, Two Radically Opposite Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

XRP<\/strong> staged a +15% overnight rally<\/strong>, reclaiming the symbolic $1 threshold<\/strong> and settling around $1.15<\/strong>. The move has immediately reignited the technical debate over what comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two Elliott Wave<\/strong> analysts are reading the exact same price structure in diametrically opposite ways. One is targeting $5.85<\/strong>, while the other was still anticipating a drop toward $0.86<\/strong> just days ago. They cannot both be right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This disagreement is far from trivial \u2014 it highlights the real limitations of wave analysis<\/strong> when applied to an asset as volatile as XRP<\/strong>, and raises a very concrete question for traders: which signal can actually be trusted?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bullish Case: A Validated Triple Dip and Breathtaking Price Targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analyst Dark Defender<\/strong> interprets the rebound as confirmation of a completed “triple dip” on the weekly chart<\/strong>. Under his Elliott Wave<\/strong> reading, XRP<\/strong> has finished a deep corrective wave<\/strong>, clearing the path for an impulsive Wave 5<\/strong> with two successive targets: $5.8563<\/strong> and then $9.0362<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These figures are spectacular, but the road to get there is lined with well-defined structural obstacles. XRP<\/strong> must first break through the $1.20\u2013$1.30 resistance zone<\/strong>, then clear the $1.50<\/strong> and $1.88<\/strong> levels \u2014 three major weekly pivots that have each acted as a ceiling in the past. Without confirmation above these levels, the five-figure targets remain pure speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The critical threshold for this scenario is clear: a weekly close below $1<\/strong> would invalidate the entire Wave 5<\/strong> thesis. The dollar mark remains the absolute dividing line between the bull case and the bear case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"XRP<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Bearish Case: When the Same Price Zone Tells the Opposite Story<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Just a week ago, analyst CasiTrades<\/strong> published a radically different Elliott<\/strong> count. At the time, XRP<\/strong> was trading around $1.01<\/strong> following a 2.5% drop<\/strong> triggered by the U.S. Senate<\/strong>‘s failure to advance the Clarity Act<\/em> before the legislative recess. Her reading identified an ongoing Wave (3)-(4)-(5) sequence<\/strong>, with a projected floor at $0.95<\/strong>, a corrective bounce toward $1.00\u2013$1.04<\/strong>, and then a final bearish leg down to $0.85\u2013$0.86<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CasiTrades<\/strong>‘s technical argument rested on an RSI reading of 36.62<\/a><\/strong> accompanied by a bearish divergence<\/strong> \u2014 a classic signal of weakening momentum. Price action since then has temporarily invalidated this scenario, but a return below $1<\/strong> would be enough to reactivate it immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is precisely where the central lesson of this situation lies: two serious analysts, working from the same price history over a two-week window, arrive at projections separated by a factor of 10x<\/strong>. Elliott Wave<\/strong> is not an exact science \u2014 it is an interpretive framework, and XRP<\/strong> is a particularly striking demonstration of that reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rise of Institutional Activity: A Structural Signal Worth Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the technical debate, one market structure development deserves close attention. According to an Evernorth<\/strong> disclosure dated August 18<\/strong>, the overlap window between the London afternoon and New York morning sessions now accounts for ~23% of XRP’s total daily volume<\/strong>, up from 14.3%<\/strong> during the same period a year earlier. Three hours of institutional trading now concentrate nearly a quarter of all activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This shift is not insignificant. It signals a progressive institutionalization of XRP flows<\/strong>, driven by players operating on precise schedules and with meaningful position sizes. In this context, key support and resistance levels<\/strong> \u2014 particularly $1<\/strong> and $1.30<\/strong> \u2014 take on an additional dimension: they are no longer just technical reference points, but zones where institutional allocation decisions are actively being made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For active traders, the short-term read remains binary: above $1<\/strong>, momentum favors the bulls and successive resistance levels represent realistic interim targets<\/a>. Below $1<\/strong>, the corrective scenario regains full credibility and $0.86<\/strong> becomes a viable target once again. The market will decide \u2014 the waves, as always, will only interpret it after the fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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