{"id":31789,"date":"2026-08-22T16:00:22","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T15:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/08\/22\/bitcoin-50-week-ma-galaxy-research-bull-market-signal\/"},"modified":"2026-08-22T16:00:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T15:00:34","slug":"bitcoin-50-week-ma-galaxy-research-bull-market-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-50-week-ma-galaxy-research-bull-market-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin and the 50-Week MA: Galaxy Research Identifies the Signal That Would Confirm the End of the Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin<\/strong> is currently trading at $78,114<\/strong>, representing a rebound of more than 32%<\/strong> from its June 30 low. Yet one critical technical level remains unbroken: the 50-week moving average (50W MA)<\/strong>, sitting at $82,470<\/strong> \u2014 just 6.4% above the current price. Galaxy Research<\/strong> has just published a study on Bitcoin’s historical market cycles that places this level at the very heart of the bull\/bear debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 50-Week MA: 11 Winning Signals Out of 13 Since 2011<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Galaxy Research<\/strong> examined every completed bear market<\/strong><\/a> since 2011, applying a strict criterion: a correction of at least 50% lasting a minimum of 90 days. The findings are striking. Out of 13 recoveries above the 50-week MA<\/strong> on a weekly closing basis, 11 coincided with the definitive cycle low<\/strong>. In other words, the signal carries a historical reliability rate of nearly 85%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only two cases failed, both occurring during the 2021\u20132022 cycle, before Bitcoin<\/strong> ultimately plunged to $15,758<\/strong>. These two false signals are the only exceptions recorded across more than a decade of data. The statistical robustness of this indicator makes it one of the most closely watched by institutional traders<\/strong> during extended retracement<\/strong> phases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Galaxy<\/strong> also notes that even during recoveries followed by whipsaws<\/strong>, Bitcoin<\/strong> never went on to set a new bear market low. The May 2019 example is telling: despite crossovers around the COVID crash, BTC never fell back below the 2017\u20132018 cycle lows. The May 2020 recovery then held for 427 consecutive days<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

50-Day MA vs 50-Week MA: Why the Weekly Timeframe Takes Precedence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Galaxy Research<\/strong> study highlights a fundamental distinction between the two moving averages. The 50-day MA<\/strong>, being more reactive, proved far noisier: out of 106 recoveries analyzed, 43 resulted in new lows<\/strong>, representing a failure rate of over 40%. That level of noise makes this indicator unreliable for confirming a structural trend reversal<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 50-week MA<\/strong> filters out that noise by smoothing data over a significantly longer period. A breakout<\/strong> confirmed on a weekly close above $82,470<\/strong> would therefore represent a far stronger confirmation signal than a simple breach on daily data. Galaxy Research<\/strong> is explicit on this point: “A daily reclaim is encouraging, but not conclusive.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For traders tracking RSI<\/strong> and MACD<\/strong> on weekly timeframes, the $82,470<\/strong> level also represents a major technical resistance<\/strong>. A clean weekly close above it would flip that resistance into support<\/strong>, potentially opening the door to a rally<\/strong> toward previous ATHs<\/strong> and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish or Bearish Scenario: What the Market Needs to Confirm<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The bullish<\/strong> scenario hinges on a weekly close above $82,470<\/strong>. If that level is validated, the historical record across 13 analyzed cycles suggests the low of the current bear market<\/strong><\/a> is already behind us. Buyers would then have a strong technical signal to consider a gradual move back toward upper resistance<\/strong> zones, with the potential for a new structural bull run<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bearish<\/strong> scenario, however, remains plausible for as long as the 50-week MA<\/strong> has not been reclaimed on a closing basis. A rejection below $82,470 would expose Bitcoin<\/strong> to a pullback toward intermediate support<\/strong> levels, with the risk \u2014 low but documented \u2014 of replicating the 2021\u20132022 pattern and printing a new cycle low. The two historical exceptions serve as a reminder that the signal is not infallible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At $78,114<\/strong>, Bitcoin<\/strong> sits in a critical transition zone. The market is now watching every weekly close with heightened attention. A clean reclaim of the 50-week MA<\/strong> would be, according to Galaxy Research<\/strong>, the strongest historical confirmation available that the bear market<\/strong> is officially over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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