{"id":32074,"date":"2026-09-01T11:37:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T10:37:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/2026\/09\/01\/clarity-act-polymarket-13-percent-odds-bitcoin-pressure\/"},"modified":"2026-09-01T11:37:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T10:37:57","slug":"clarity-act-polymarket-13-percent-odds-bitcoin-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/clarity-act-polymarket-13-percent-odds-bitcoin-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act: Odds of Passing Collapse to 13% on Polymarket as Bitcoin Faces Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Prediction markets are sending a warning signal to the crypto sector. The Polymarket<\/strong> contract on the CLARITY Act<\/strong> has plunged from 82% in February to just 13% probability of passage in 2026<\/strong> \u2014 a collapse that reshuffles the deck for traders who had positioned regulatory clarity as the next major catalyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Bitcoin<\/strong> is trading below $79,000<\/strong>, trapped between a weakened support level and a resistance zone the market has failed to reclaim since July. The US legislative calendar has, almost by default, become the primary driver of short-term market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a breakdown of a probability gap that reveals a great deal about the true state of crypto regulation in the United States<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CLARITY Act Hits the Senate Wall: What Prediction Markets Are Really Saying<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The bill H.R. 3633<\/strong> \u2014 known as the CLARITY Act<\/strong> \u2014 aims to grant the CFTC<\/strong> exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while leaving the SEC<\/strong> to oversee tokens classified as securities and exchange surveillance. On paper, it is exactly the framework the crypto industry has been demanding for years. In practice, the legislative path has proven far steeper than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Senate<\/strong> is set to vote on a cloture motion on September 15<\/strong>. Republicans<\/strong> hold 53 seats, but the 60-vote threshold required means convincing at least seven Democratic senators<\/strong> to cross the aisle. That is precisely the bet that prediction markets<\/a> are increasingly pricing as unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Polymarket<\/a><\/strong>, the dedicated contract \u2014 which has generated over $11.5 million in volume<\/strong> \u2014 now shows 13 to 14% probability of passage in 2026<\/strong>. By comparison, Kalshi<\/strong> puts the odds of a vote taking place before October 1 at 91%<\/strong>. That is where the real trade lies: the gaping spread between “a vote happens” and “the bill actually passes.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Polymarket<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Brian Armstrong<\/strong>, CEO of Coinbase<\/strong>, has publicly stated he is “fairly optimistic” about clearing the 60-vote hurdle. But prediction markets<\/a> are telling a far colder story \u2014 and historically, they have proven more accurate at anticipating legislative outcomes than the stated intentions of industry stakeholders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin Below $79K: How Regulatory Uncertainty Is Compressing Risk Appetite<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin is trading around $78,646<\/strong>, down 0.28% over the past 24 hours. A seemingly minor move, but one that fits squarely within a broader compression of risk appetite directly tied to regulatory uncertainty. The $76,000 to $78,000<\/strong> range has been acting as short-term support across several consecutive sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should that floor break, technical analysts are pointing to a likely retest of the low $70,000s<\/strong>. To the upside, resistance is concentrated between $82,000 and $84,000<\/strong> \u2014 a level BTC<\/strong> has not convincingly reclaimed since momentum around the CLARITY Act<\/strong> began deteriorating in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three scenarios are now structuring trader positioning:<\/p>\n\n\n\n