{"id":25744,"date":"2026-01-25T10:13:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T10:13:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/?p=25744"},"modified":"2026-01-25T10:13:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T10:13:33","slug":"polymarket-probabilidades-cierre-enero-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/noticias-cripto\/polymarket-probabilidades-cierre-enero-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket: Las Probabilidades de un Nuevo Cierre Gubernamental en Enero se Disparan al 77%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"polymarket-se-dispara-por-que-se-dispara-el-miedo-a-un-cierre-del-gobierno\">Polymarket se dispara: \u00bfPor qu\u00e9 se dispara el miedo a un cierre del gobierno?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>El <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/prediccion\/\">mercado de predicciones<\/a>, a menudo considerado como un indicador adelantado del <strong>sentimiento<\/strong> real de los inversores, acaba de registrar un movimiento masivo. En el espacio de pocos d\u00edas, las cuotas relativas a un <strong>cierre del gobierno estadounidense (shutdown) en enero<\/strong> se han disparado literalmente, pasando de una probabilidad moderada a un consenso alarmante del <strong>77 %.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BREAKING: The odds of another government shutdown by January 31st surge to 75%, per Polymarket.<br><br>Less than 3 months later, the government shutdown is back. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tesn6I4LFx\">pic.twitter.com\/tesn6I4LFx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/2015198834238861590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 24, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Este cambio brusco de din\u00e1mica se produce tras una <strong>intervenci\u00f3n directa de Donald Trump.<\/strong> El expresidente y figura central de la pol\u00edtica estadounidense declar\u00f3 sin rodeos: \u00abProbablemente acabaremos con otro cierre dem\u00f3crata\u00bb. Esta ret\u00f3rica agit\u00f3 inmediatamente a las <strong>ballenas<\/strong> en <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/prediccion\/polymarket\/theo\/\">Polymarket<\/a>, que apostaron masivamente por la materializaci\u00f3n de este escenario catastr\u00f3fico para la administraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para los observadores del mercado, estos movimientos en <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/prediccion\/polymarket\/apostar\/\">Polymarket<\/a> no son ruido, sino una se\u00f1al clara. La plataforma, que ha ganado credibilidad gracias a su precisi\u00f3n durante las elecciones, act\u00faa aqu\u00ed como un bar\u00f3metro del miedo. Si el cierre se confirma, podr\u00eda paralizar parte de la econom\u00eda estadounidense, creando un entorno propicio para el <strong>FUD<\/strong> (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) en los mercados tradicionales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"que-impacto-tendra-en-bitcoin-y-los-activos-de-riesgo\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 impacto tendr\u00e1 en Bitcoin y los activos de riesgo?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hist\u00f3ricamente, la inestabilidad pol\u00edtica en Estados Unidos ha tenido efectos contrastados en el mercado cripto. Por un lado, un cierre del gobierno podr\u00eda <strong>debilitar el d\u00f3lar (DXY)<\/strong>, lo que generalmente favorece un <strong>rally<\/strong> en activos escasos como el oro y <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/invertir-criptomonedas\/comprar\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a>. Los inversores podr\u00edan buscar cobertura (hedge) contra la incertidumbre fiduciaria, impulsando potencialmente al BTC hacia una prueba de resistencia clave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Government shutdown chances going through the roof and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> corrects.<br><br>Not great, however, we&#39;re waiting for markets to open. <br><br>CME gap to $89.4K, which likely means that we&#39;ll see a short bounce upwards later today. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YKy5It5Pk1\">pic.twitter.com\/YKy5It5Pk1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/2015355465564090741?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sin embargo, el escenario no es \u00fanicamente <strong>alcista<\/strong>. Una par\u00e1lisis gubernamental suele provocar una aversi\u00f3n al riesgo global. Si el S&amp;P 500 y el Nasdaq inician una <strong>correcci\u00f3n<\/strong> severa, la correlaci\u00f3n actual de las <a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/invertir-criptomonedas\/comprar\/\">criptos<\/a> con las acciones tecnol\u00f3gicas podr\u00eda arrastrar al mercado en una ca\u00edda brutal. Los traders vigilan por tanto de cerca los niveles de soporte, temiendo que un p\u00e1nico desencadene una cascada de liquidaciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mientras se acerca enero, la pregunta candente es si Bitcoin reaccionar\u00e1 como un activo refugio o como un activo de riesgo especulativo. Si la narrativa del oro digital se impone frente al fallo institucional estadounidense, Bitcoin y el mercado de acciones podr\u00edan vislumbrar una nueva ca\u00edda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+z-a5LKRM7HxkNWZk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Operaciones de calidad, resultados concretos: Obt\u00e9n tu acceso gratuito al grupo privado InvestX.<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Art\u00edculos Relacionados:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/noticias-cripto\/bitcoin-krach-pump-escenarios-enero-febrero\/\">\u00bfBitcoin en Ca\u00edda Libre o Subida Explosiva? An\u00e1lisis de los Escenarios Clave para Enero y Febrero<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/noticias-cripto\/dogecoin-shiba-inu-prediccion-febrero\/\">\u00bfDogecoin vs. Shiba Inu : \u00bfCu\u00e1l subir\u00e1 m\u00e1s en febrero ?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investx.fr\/es\/noticias-cripto\/bitcoin-gamestop-vende-btc-perdidas\/\">Bitcoin: GameStop a punto de vender sus 4700 BTC con p\u00e9rdidas millonarias<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfCierre gubernamental en enero? Las probabilidades en Polymarket se disparan al 77%. Descubre el impacto en el mercado crypto y las advertencias.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":25743,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"polymarket cierre","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Polymarket: \u00bf77% de Probabilidad de Cierre en Enero?","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"\u00bfCierre gubernamental en enero? Las probabilidades en Polymarket se disparan al 77%. Descubre el impacto en el mercado crypto.","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":"noticias-cripto\/polymarket-probabilidades-cierre-enero-bitcoin"},"categories":[51,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-prediccion","category-noticias-cripto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Polymarket: \u00bf77% de Probabilidad de Cierre en Enero?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00bfCierre gubernamental en enero? Las probabilidades en Polymarket se disparan al 77%. 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Las probabilidades en Polymarket se disparan al 77%. 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