Solana whales unstake millions: Is a crash imminent for SOL?

An Exit Strategy That Avoids a Crash

This is the information circulating: a long-term investor, present on the network for nearly two years, has initiated a massive exit from their positions. In total, more than 98,000 SOL have been unstaked and dumped onto the market. Notably, this operation resulted in a realized loss of over $6.6 million for this holder, who had accumulated their tokens at much higher price levels, close to the previous cycle’s peaks. On the other hand, another whale has just unlocked 1 million SOL, representing over $128 million that could add to the selling pressure.

Why didn’t the Solana price plunge instantly? The answer lies in the execution method. Rather than opting for a brutal panic sell that would have wiped out the order book, this whale used a reverse DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy, spreading their sales over time. This methodical distribution allowed the market to absorb the excess supply without triggering a cascade of liquidations. However, this constant selling pressure acts as a glass ceiling, preventing any attempt at an impulsive rally for now.

Technical Analysis: SOL Trapped in a Vice

Graphically, the situation is tense but under control. Solana’s price is currently trading around $128, trapped in a very tight consolidation range. Buyers are fiercely defending the demand zone (daily order block) between $123 and $127. Each incursion into this territory triggers an immediate reaction from the bulls, proving that there is genuine appetite for the token at these valuation levels.

Conversely, the market structure remains fragile on the upside. The $146 – $150 zone constitutes a major resistance, corresponding to the upper boundary of the consolidation channel. Between these two boundaries, the $136 level acts as a short-term pivot, alternating between support and resistance depending on the sessions (it’s a daily POC).

Currently, SOL is torn between a breakdown below and a bounce on its bullish trendline. What is almost certain is that a breakdown below its order block under $123 would be a hard blow for SOL and a plunge towards $110 would be almost confirmed.

Scenarios: Towards a Rebound to $150 or a Free Fall?

The market stands at a crossroads and volatility could soon make its return. If buyers manage to transform the $135 pivot into solid support, a return towards the $150 resistance is the favored scenario. A breakout above this level would unleash bullish potential, invalidating the pressure exerted by the recent massive sell-off.

However, caution remains warranted. If the critical support of $123 were to give way under the weight of supply, Solana could enter a deeper correction phase. The absence of significant liquidity below this threshold could accelerate the drop towards the psychological zone of $110, or even lower. Traders will therefore closely monitor the closing of daily candles to confirm the direction of the next major move.

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