The recent rise in Gold price gives an indication of the price of the future Bitcoin

Gold’s Record Surge

Key highlights:

Gold price has surged 55.58% in 2025, reaching a new record above $4,350 per ounce.
Bitcoin’s annual rise of 15% seems modest in comparison, as it struggles to maintain $110,000.
According to analysts, gold’s trajectory could foreshadow bitcoin’s next major rally.
Central banks continue to purchase gold aggressively, while bitcoin awaits institutional demand.

Record Gold Rally

The price of gold has surged more than 55% this year, reaching approximately $4,350 per ounce, its highest level ever recorded. The precious metal has significantly outperformed Bitcoin, which has increased by about 18% in 2025 and has fallen approximately 10% in recent weeks due to intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China.

Bitcoin price chart in orange on dark background with market cap information — Bitcoin price has increased 18% in 2025. Source: CoinCodex

The contrast between the two assets is striking. Gold continues to reach new heights, while Bitcoin struggles to stay above $110,000, even after reaching $126,000 earlier this year.

For investors who once labeled Bitcoin as “digital gold,” this contrast is frustrating. Yet, some analysts claim that gold’s rise could actually be a preview of what awaits Bitcoin.

Gold’s Rally as a Roadmap for Bitcoin

“Don’t look at gold’s meteoric rise with envy, but with anticipation,” wrote Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, in an investor note dated October 21. “It might end up showing us where Bitcoin is headed.”

According to Hougan, gold’s rise didn’t happen overnight. Central banks began buying heavily in 2022, but the real breakthrough only came this year. Bitcoin’s institutional wave started later, with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. If the same pattern repeats, Bitcoin could still experience a major breakthrough.

Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000, while 10xResearch estimates it has about a 50% chance of reaching $140,000 before year-end. According to CoinCodex’s Bitcoin price forecasts, new institutional inflows could trigger a fresh bull phase for Bitcoin.

The Central Bank Factor

Central banks have been one of the driving forces behind gold’s price surge. After the US froze Russian Treasury bond assets in 2022, official gold purchases nearly doubled from about 467 tonnes per year to nearly 1,000 tonnes, according to Metals Focus. This represents approximately twice as much as gold-linked exchange-traded products purchased annually.

Bar chart showing central bank gold purchases since 2022 — Central banks intensified gold purchases in August. Source: World Gold Council

Bitcoin doesn’t yet benefit from such official support. ETFs now hold more than 6% of the total bitcoin supply, and corporate treasuries control over one million BTC, but central banks remain largely absent from the cryptocurrency market.

According to CoinCodex’s gold price forecasts, the precious metal could continue its upward trajectory, with central bank demand remaining strong, potentially gaining an additional 34% over the next three months.

Gold price forecast chart until 2026 with additional prediction information — Gold price is expected to increase by more than 30% in the coming months. Source: Coincodex

Sellers Watching Bitcoin for a Gold-Like Jump in 2025

Hougan points out that gold didn’t take off when central banks first started buying. It gradually moved from $1,800 in 2022 to $2,386 in 2024, and it was only this year that prices surged beyond $4,350.

He believes that as central banks continued to accumulate reserves, early sellers eventually exhausted their supply. Once this happened, prices increased dramatically.

Bitcoin could experience the same situation. Since the launch of ETFs in early 2024, institutions have purchased approximately 1.39 million BTC, more than four times miners’ production. Bitcoin has gained about 135% since then.

If this trend continues, short-term sellers could soon be exhausted. “As long as the combination of ETF and corporate buying persists, Bitcoin will experience its ‘Gold 2025’ moment,” wrote Hougan.

When Gold’s Strength Becomes a Warning

Not everyone sees gold’s rise as good news.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that gold’s rally looked “simply scary.”

“The speed of this rally – +60% in one year – hasn’t been seen since 1979,” McGlone said on The Deep Dive podcast.

That previous surge had preceded a major reversal when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to curb inflation.

“When all major risk assets underperform gold, that ancient store of value, it’s not a good sign,” McGlone added.

Conclusion

Gold’s breakthrough in 2025 has left Bitcoin lagging, but not necessarily out of the game. Analysts see parallels between gold’s slow build-up and Bitcoin’s current accumulation phase among ETFs and corporations.

If the trend holds, Bitcoin might simply be following gold’s curve with a one or two-year lag, rather than losing its edge as a store of value. For long-term holders, gold’s performance may not be a warning but rather a preview of what awaits Bitcoin.

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