Gold Advances While Bitcoin Lags Behind
In 2024, precious metals have clearly outperformed Bitcoin. Gold shows a 54% increase and silver 63%, while BTC struggles to reach 21% gains. This divergence raises questions. For some traders, it doesn’t indicate a structural weakness in Bitcoin, but rather a temporal lag before an explosive catch-up.
The analysis relies on a tool that receives little media attention but is formidably effective according to its advocates: the Mayer Multiple. Originally, this indicator was developed by Trace Mayer, an entrepreneur and analyst specializing in digital currency, to identify Bitcoin’s overbought and oversold zones by comparing its spot price to its 200-day moving average. The logic is simple: when the ratio exceeds 2.4, the market enters an overheated zone. Below 0.8, an accumulation opportunity emerges.
But some analysts go further. They apply this methodology not just to Bitcoin alone, but to the BTC/Gold or BTC/Silver ratio. When this ratio falls below 1, it means that Bitcoin is consistently underperforming precious metals relative to its own moving average. Historically, these phases of relative underperformance have preceded periods of violent BTC explosions.
The Mayer Multiple: A Buy Signal Activated?
An anonymous trader recently shared on social media an analysis of the BTC/Gold Mayer Multiple, highlighting that it has reached levels historically associated with market crashes or bottoms. In other words, these configurations only appear during phases of capitulation or strong compression of Bitcoin’s price against gold.
The reasoning is twofold. On one hand, when gold outperforms Bitcoin for several months, it often reflects a flow of capital toward safe-haven assets in a context of macroeconomic uncertainty. On the other hand, this movement mechanically creates a compression of the BTC/Gold ratio, which eventually violently unwinds when market sentiment shifts. Investors, either reassured or seeking returns, then massively return to Bitcoin.
The figures speak for themselves: over five years, Bitcoin shows a performance of more than 700%, compared to about 100% for gold and silver. This return asymmetry justifies, according to the indicator’s advocates, the relevance of a tactical rotation from precious metals to BTC as soon as the Mayer Multiple drops below 1.
However, it should be remembered that the Mayer Multiple is based on historical data and moving averages—in other words, lagging indicators. No technical tool guarantees an exact prediction of future movements, especially in a market as volatile as cryptocurrencies.
Macro Context: A Favorable Environment for BTC’s Return
Beyond technical signals, the current macroeconomic context favors Bitcoin. Central banks maintain accommodative monetary policies in several economic zones and real interest rates remain moderate. This context of abundant liquidity traditionally provides fertile ground for risky assets, including Bitcoin. According to the Global Liquidity Model, Bitcoin’s fair value is around $168,000.
At the same time, institutional adoption continues to progress. Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States are attracting billions of dollars in assets under management, and several European jurisdictions are easing their regulations to promote the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional portfolios. This institutional flow contrasts with the classic retail volatility and offers increased market stability.
Finally, political signals are also becoming more favorable. Several governments are adopting pro-crypto positions, encouraging blockchain innovation while managing systemic risks. This regulatory clarification reduces uncertainty and facilitates the entry of new capital into the BTC market.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could soon make up for its lag behind gold and silver, and even far surpass them in the coming months. The question remains whether the current technical and fundamental conditions will confirm this bullish scenario—or if the market still has some surprises in store for investors.
Buy your cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, SOL or ETH on Bitget easily and get $10 bonus offered right now:
On the same topic:
