Bittensor's TAO surges for six consecutive days, nearing $425, with the anticipation of two major catalysts: the upcoming launch of a staking-backed Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) and a halving in 44 days. Could these events drive the token to $678 by the end of 2025? On-chain data and technical analysis indicate a significant bullish momentum building up.
Deutsche Digital Assets and Safello are preparing to launch STAO on the SIX Swiss Exchange in November 2025, marking a decisive milestone for Bittensor. This exchange-traded product will allow investors to gain direct exposure to TAO ‘s price while capturing staking rewards, all with a management fee of 1.49%.
The arrival of this regulated investment vehicle opens the door to institutional capital that cannot directly hold cryptocurrencies. Simplified access for pension funds, family offices, and traditional asset managers could significantly broaden TAO’s investor base. This institutional momentum is already reflected in derivative metrics.
CoinGlass data reveals an increase in Open Interest on TAO futures contracts, rising from $312 to $317 million in intraday trading. The funding rate has also shifted into positive territory, climbing from -0.0018% to 0.0048%, confirming that leveraged traders are heavily betting on a bullish continuation. This growing conviction often precedes significant price movements when accompanied by fundamental catalysts.
In approximately 44 days, Bittensor will halve its daily TAO emissions, dropping from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens per day. This deflationary mechanism, inspired by Bitcoin halvings, creates potential upward price pressure if demand remains constant or increases. The history of halvings on major blockchains consistently shows a reduction in selling pressure and the introduction of structural scarcity. This is now reinforced by the influx of institutional flows through the STAO ETP, forming a favorable fundamental setup.
Technically, TAO is evolving within an ascending wedge structure and has just rebounded from a key demand zone identified by analyst Rekt Capital, propelling the price toward the major resistance at $449.36. A weekly close above this level would transform the resistance into support and reopen the macro range between $449.36 and $678.13, with potential for an intermediate movement toward $563.
The superficial corrections after each resistance test demonstrate a tightening of supply and absorptive demand, suggesting gradual accumulation before a directional move. If the breakthrough of $450 is confirmed with volume, the $678 target becomes technically coherent, particularly if the post-halving catalysts materialize as anticipated.
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