MVRV Ratio in Bearish Territory
September has always been a challenging month for Bitcoin. This year seems to be no exception, with the appearance of three “death cross” signals on major technical indicators. These patterns, often precursors to volatility and corrections, cast a shadow over the short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.
The first warning comes from the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an on-chain metric closely monitored by crypto analysts. According to Yonsei_dent, the MVRV has just formed a “death cross” with the 30-day moving average crossing below the 365-day moving average. Historically, such crossovers have often preceded significant corrections in Bitcoin’s price.
“This doesn’t necessarily mean the same scenario will repeat itself Bitcoin ETFs have brought more structural stability to the market. But history doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes. The MVRV signals deserve our attention,” emphasizes Yonsei_dent.
The second concerning signal comes from Bitcoin’s weekly MACD indicator. This momentum measurement tool shows that the MACD line has just crossed below the signal line, a pattern often interpreted as a sign of weakening buying pressure and downside risk.
Signals to Watch Closely for Bitcoin
The third warning comes from analyst Deezy, who focuses on Bitcoin’s Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). He noted that the 20-day average has just crossed below the 50-day average a classic “death cross” pattern.
“The last time this happened in February 2025, BTC fell an additional 23%. A 23% drop from here would put Bitcoin at $86,000,” he predicted.
These three “death cross” signals converge in September 2025, painting a concerning picture for Bitcoin. While these indicators have often been followed by volatility in the past, it’s important to note that they can sometimes prove to be false signals, especially during strong bull markets.
This time, the stakes are high as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts, a measure expected to strengthen sentiment toward cryptocurrencies. Vigilance is therefore essential for Bitcoin in September, despite potentially stabilizing factors in place.
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