As the crypto market awaits the crucial Bank of Japan decision, an AI algorithm trained on historical data offers a fascinating outlook on Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025. Amid short-term downward pressure and the potential for a "Santa Rally," the AI predicts a relatively stable trajectory. Here's what the machines are telling us.
According to an updated simulation by analyst Timothy Peterson, an AI algorithm predicts that Bitcoin will finish the year 2025 at $92,000. The model, which correctly identified the market bottom last week, suggests a generally flat trajectory through the end of the month.
There is less than a 50% chance that Bitcoin will climb back above $100,000 by December 31st. The model also forecasts a possible variation of +/- 15%, which places the price in a range between $78,000 and $106,000.
This prediction of a year-end without a major explosion is consistent with current market sentiment. All eyes are on December 19th, when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce its interest rate decision.
A rate hike, even a modest one, could trigger a massive sell-off across global markets, including cryptocurrencies, due to the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade. Traders are therefore on the defensive, which explains the current selling pressure and the “red delta” observed in derivatives markets.
However, this bearish pressure could be the calm before the storm. The consensus is that the market will remain volatile and rather bearish until the BOJ announcement. Once the uncertainty is lifted, and if the BOJ’s decision is not as aggressive as feared, this could trigger a year-end rally, often called a “Santa Rally”.
This scenario would see relieved investors returning to the market in force, which could help Bitcoin reach the AI’s prediction of $92,000.
In conclusion, artificial intelligence offers us a measured but solid vision for the end of the year. No spectacular explosion above $100,000, but consolidation around $92,000.
This is all the more consistent since Bitcoin has never finished the last year of its 4-year cycles in negative territory. The previous annual candle closed at $93,342. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin should therefore finish the year above this price. In other words, any dip this week would be an opportunity to seize and take advantage of this imminent rise.
This also means that we should expect volatility in the coming days, but that the fundamentals for a solid year-end remain in place.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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