AI Prediction: A Rise to $92,000
According to an updated simulation by analyst Timothy Peterson, an AI algorithm predicts that Bitcoin will end 2025 at $92,000. The model, which correctly identified the market bottom last week, suggests a broadly flat trajectory through the end of the month.
There is less than a 50% chance that Bitcoin will climb back above $100,000 by December 31st. The model also forecasts a possible variation of plus or minus 15%, placing the price in a range between $78,000 and $106,000.
The Short Term Bearish Wall: The Bank of Japan
This prediction of a year end without a major breakout is consistent with current market sentiment. All eyes are on December 19th, when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce its interest rate decision.
A rate hike, even a modest one, could trigger a massive selloff across global markets, including cryptocurrencies, due to the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade. Traders are therefore on the defensive, which explains the current selling pressure and the red delta observed in derivatives markets.
The Santa Rally Scenario
However, this bearish pressure could be the calm before the storm. The consensus is that the market will remain volatile and rather bearish until the BOJ announcement. Once the uncertainty is lifted, and if the BOJ decision is not as aggressive as feared, this could trigger a year end rally, often called a Santa Rally.
This scenario would see investors, relieved, return to the market in force, which could help Bitcoin reach the AI prediction of $92,000.
In conclusion, artificial intelligence offers us a tempered but solid vision for the end of the year. No spectacular explosion above $100,000, but consolidation around $92,000.
This is all the more consistent given that Bitcoin has never finished the last year of its 4 year cycles in negative territory. The previous annual candle closed at $93,342. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin should therefore finish the year above this price. In other words, any drop this week would be an opportunity to seize to benefit from this imminent rise.
This also means we should expect volatility in the coming days, but that the fundamentals for a strong year end remain in place.
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