Altcoin season: Why the real bull run is taking longer than expected

Bitcoin Absorbs All Liquidity: Can Altcoin Season Really Begin?

For a proper altcoin season to emerge, history has taught us that one ingredient is essential: capital rotation. Currently, the market remains focused on the king of cryptos. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) remains perched at elevated levels, signaling that institutional and retail investors still favor the safety of BTC over the volatility of riskier assets.

To see a genuine rally in altcoins, we would primarily need to see retail return to the world of cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, blockchain technology is struggling to captivate like it did in previous cycles. Moreover, the trauma from the previous cycle could be difficult to erase.

It’s even possible to observe two bearish order blocks within 2 weeks on the OTHERS chart, which represents all cryptos except the top 10 cryptocurrencies. The capital flight from small altcoins has been violent and could serve as a purge on the altcoin side, where numerous projects could be destined to disappear.

Ethereum Lagging Behind: The Missing Signal to Trigger Euphoria?

The usual conductor of Altseason is Ethereum. However, Ether has shown concerning relative weakness against Bitcoin for several months. The ETH/BTC ratio is a barometer indicator for risk appetite: when it falls, it means the market is defensive. When it pumps, it’s the starting signal for the rest of the altcoins.

Currently, Ethereum is struggling to validate a convincing breakout that could reassure investors. On-chain data shows that transaction fees (Gas fees) on the main network remain relatively low, indicating on-chain activity that isn’t yet overheating. A true Altseason is often accompanied by Ethereum network congestion, reflecting massive use of DeFi protocols and NFTs.

Furthermore, competition from Layer 1s like Solana fragments liquidity. Instead of having a unified flow toward Ethereum then to other tokens, capital disperses, making bullish movements more selective and less explosive for the entire sector. We’re witnessing more sectoral mini-cycles (Memecoins, AI, RWA) than a global and synchronized rise.

On-Chain Indicators Turn Red: Should We Fear a Correction?

Beyond price action, sentiment indicators like Blockchain Center’s Altcoin Season Index confirm this lethargy. To officially declare the season open, 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies must outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. We’re currently far from this figure, with the market remaining mostly correlated to BTC movements.

Another key factor is the absence of “Fresh Retail Money”. Google search volumes for “Buy Crypto” or “Altcoins” haven’t yet reached the euphoria levels of previous cycles. The market is currently dominated by experienced traders and algorithms (HFT), creating rapid Pump and Dump movements rather than sustainable bullish trends.

Finally, stablecoin data shows that while USDT issuance is increasing, a large portion serves as collateral for Bitcoin positions or remains on standby on exchanges. Whales seem to be accumulating in the shadows, waiting for technical or macroeconomic confirmation before triggering massive buy orders on altcoins.

The history of crypto cycles shows that the biggest multiples are made by buying when sentiment is uncertain, just before liquidity pivots. However, this is the first time in history that altcoins have faced such selling pressure. Selectivity and caution are therefore the watchwords for navigating the upcoming cycle.

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