This week is crucial for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. With key US macroeconomic data and European economic indicators on the horizon, traders will be closely monitoring publications that could trigger substantial price movements. Institutional investors are particularly focused on US PMI indices and employment statistics.
Purchasing Managers’ Indices, commonly known as PMI, serve as a leading indicator of global economic health. These monthly data releases for manufacturing and services sectors directly influence investors’ risk appetite. A PMI above 50 signals economic expansion, while a lower figure indicates contraction. For Bitcoin, the correlation with these indices remains ambivalent.
On one hand, robust PMI figures strengthen overall confidence and can fuel flows into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, they increase the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive monetary policy, which traditionally weighs on BTC valuations.
Attentive traders will particularly analyze PMI data from the Eurozone and United States. A marked divergence between these two geographic zones could create volatility in BTC/USD and BTC/EUR pairs. Support levels around $102,000 and resistance near $110,000 remain key areas to watch closely.
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The US labor market remains at the center of financial institutions’ concerns. Weekly jobless claims and monthly job creation statistics directly shape expectations for Fed monetary policy. A labor market that’s too resilient could delay interest rate cuts, an unfavorable scenario for digital assets.
Bitcoin has historically performed well in environments of abundant liquidity and low interest rates. Conversely, maintaining high rates increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC. Institutional investors, now massively present via spot ETFs, react with increased sensitivity to these macroeconomic indicators.
This week, a positive surprise in job creation could trigger a technical correction. Altcoins, more sensitive to risk-off movements, would likely experience more pronounced selling pressure. Bitcoin dominance, currently stable, could temporarily increase if investors seek the relative safety of the first cryptocurrency.
This week’s macroeconomic events should amplify intraday volatility across crypto markets. Market makers are already adjusting their spreads in anticipation of these releases, potentially resulting in reduced liquidity at key moments. Active traders will need to adapt their risk management strategies accordingly.
Bitcoin options show increased implied volatility for short-term expirations, indicating that investors are preparing for sudden price movements. Liquidation levels for leveraged positions remain concentrated around critical technical zones below $106,000 and $100,000, increasing the risk of cascading liquidations if major support breaks.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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