Investors hoping for a bullish year are now seeing Bitcoin struggling to hold onto its yearly gains. To avoid ending in the red, the leading cryptocurrency must initiate a 6.24% rally in the coming days.
The contrast is striking between early year expectations and the current market configuration. Just a few months ago, analyst consensus and prediction models, often based on post-halving cycles, anticipated a major bull run.
Price targets mentioned by numerous analysis firms placed Bitcoin in a range between $180,000 and $250,000 for 2025. This is a prediction that Charles Hoskinson firmly maintains.
However, the reality of the chart tells a different story. Instead of the expected bullish explosion, BTC’s price has undergone an extended phase of consolidation, punctuated by several severe correction movements. The buyers’ inability to maintain pressure has given way to a sentiment of doubt, far from the institutional FOMO that was hoped for. This morning’s fresh failure to maintain $90,000 proves this yet again.
According to the latest on-chain data and technical analysis, the stakes are now both arithmetic and psychological. Bitcoin needs to register a positive performance of 6% from its current level to move back above its yearly opening price. Without this last-minute breakout, 2025 would be recorded as a losing year, a historically bearish signal for the rest of the cycle.
As Killa points out, if BTC doesn’t finish the year in the green, above $92,000, it would mark the end of a Bitcoin algorithmic pattern:
“If it fails, it would mark the first time in 14 years that the third bull market year has closed red, signaling a shift in the long standing market algorithm,” Killa writes.
The current situation forces traders to exercise caution. The market is awaiting a catalyst capable of reversing the trend in the short term. Technical indicators show that volatility is compressing, which often precedes a violent move.
Bitcoin has accustomed us to spectacular reversals. While the $250,000 target now seems out of reach for this year, BTC’s ability to generate a 6% pump within a few days remains intact. The battle for 2025’s yearly close will be a major resilience test for the entire crypto ecosystem. And it will be decisive for the months ahead.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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