After five weeks of price compression, Bitcoin is showing serious signs of recovery. US demand is waking up, on-chain indicators are turning around — but macro remains a risk factor that cannot be ignored.
This week is shaping up to be decisive: between major economic releases, rate pressures, and a renewed wave of institutional appetite, BTC is playing a high-stakes game around a critical pivot level.
Here are the three signals every trader needs to keep in mind before opening a position.
A 5-Week Squeeze Nearing Its End?
Bitcoin has been trading in an increasingly narrow range since mid-March, compressing volatility into a tight band. This type of setup — often referred to as a squeeze or compression consolidation — typically precedes a strong directional move, whether to the upside or the downside.
The most encouraging signal comes from the US demand side. Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have regained momentum over recent days, with several consecutive sessions of positive net inflows according to available market data. This renewed institutional interest coincides with a price rebound above the $93,000–$94,000 zone, a key support level that has been tested multiple times.
From a technical standpoint, the market structure remains constructive: weekly candles are printing increasingly shorter lower wicks, a sign that sellers are running out of steam. A decisive close above $95,500 on the weekly chart would open the door toward the major resistance at $98,000, and potentially the psychological threshold of $100,000.
3 Signals to Watch Closely This Week
The week is particularly heavy on the macroeconomic front, adding an extra layer of complexity to reading the crypto market. Here are the three indicators to monitor as a priority:
- US Treasury Yields (US10Y): The 10-year yield remains under pressure. A move back above 4.6–4.7% would reinforce risk aversion and mechanically weigh on speculative assets like BTC. Every macro release — NFP, ISM, Fed speakers — can shift this dial.
- The Coinbase Premium Index: This indicator measures the price gap between Coinbase (US retail and institutional demand) and Binance. A positive and rising premium confirms that US demand is driving the market — a structurally bullish signal. Conversely, a negative flip would signal profit-taking on the US side.
- Liquidations and Open Interest: According to CoinGlass data, Open Interest on BTC futures remains elevated. A rapid bullish move toward $98,000 would trigger a cascade of short liquidations, amplifying the move. But a sharp reversal could just as easily flush out the longs accumulated during the squeeze.
These three metrics form a minimal dashboard for navigating an environment where macro conditions and sentiment can reverse a trend within hours.
Macro as the Final Arbiter of the Rally
Bitcoin no longer operates in a vacuum. Its correlation with equity markets — and more specifically with the Nasdaq 100 — remains elevated during periods of stress. This week, several major US economic releases are expected, including employment and inflation data, which could reshape expectations around Fed policy.
If the data confirms persistent inflation, the probability of a rate cut in 2025 moves even further out of reach — a near-term unfavorable scenario for risk assets. On the other hand, softer figures could reignite risk appetite and push Bitcoin toward its next major resistance level.
The technical setup is favorable, institutional demand is stirring — but the final verdict belongs to macro. Savvy traders will wait for a clear confirmation above $95,500 before committing to a breakout toward $98,000.
