Bitcoin is sending two simultaneous signals that have analysts on high alert this week. On one hand, on-chain data is pointing to the formation of a macro bottom. On the other, BTC’s correlation with gold has reached levels not seen in years.
CryptoQuant has published two separate reports that converge on the same conclusion: the market is entering a critical phase, historically associated with major cycle reversals. The numbers are precise, the patterns recognizable — but uncertainty remains very much intact.
At $63,362, Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached last October. A drawdown of this magnitude has, throughout Bitcoin’s history, frequently preceded the most powerful re-accumulation phases the market has ever seen.
Long-Term Holders in Negative Territory: A Historic Bottom Signal
The key indicator highlighted by CryptoQuant is the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) for long-term holders (LTHs). This metric measures the average level of unrealized gains or losses among the cohort considered the most resilient in the market — those who have been holding for more than 155 days.
Currently, the LTH aNUPL has flipped negative and is sitting below the overall market average. In plain terms: even the strongest hands are now sitting on unrealized losses, and their stress level exceeds that of the broader market. CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV notes that this exact pattern has appeared at every major cycle bottom in Bitcoin‘s history.
Bitcoin is also trading within its production cost zone, a level at which the spot price approaches the average cost of mining. Historically, this zone has marked the floors of bear markets. Combined with the 50% drawdown from the peak, the technical setup reinforces the thesis of a bottom forming — without yet confirming it.
Further Capitulation Remains Possible
CryptoQuant analysts are nonetheless tempering the enthusiasm. In previous cycles, the LTH aNUPL plunged to far deeper levels — what some describe as “depression territory” — before a true floor was established. Current readings have not yet reached those historical extremes.
Two scenarios are now in play: either Bitcoin undergoes one final capitulation leg to push LTH losses toward those extreme levels, or a more structurally driven institutional bid allows the market to form a bottom with less damage than in previous cycles. The outcome will largely depend on incoming flows and the behavior of major players over the weeks ahead.
Correlation With Gold Surges: Bitcoin Reclaims Safe-Haven Status
The second major signal comes from Bitcoin’s price behavior relative to gold. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has swung from -0.9 at the start of 2026 to approximately +0.7 today. A spectacular reversal that Ju describes as a return to the “digital gold era” levels.
That figure carries real weight. A strong positive correlation with gold signals that investors are repositioning Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset capable of serving as a hedge against monetary debasement, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical instability. This is precisely the founding narrative of Bitcoin — the one that drove BTC into its earliest and most powerful bull runs.
This repositioning is unfolding against a tense macroeconomic backdrop: record budget deficits across several major economies, persistent pressure on fiat currencies, and geopolitical uncertainties pushing capital toward assets perceived as stores of value. Bitcoin, with its hard cap of 21 million units and its independence from central banks, checks every box of that safe-haven asset profile.
A Narrative That Reshapes Market Dynamics
The return of the digital gold narrative is not merely a matter of statistical correlation. It concretely reshapes the structure of demand: institutional investors allocating to Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification play — similar to their exposure to gold — operate with a longer time horizon and a fundamentally different tolerance for volatility than retail traders.
If this trend holds, it could lend further weight to the thesis of a cleaner bottom than those seen in previous cycles, underpinned by a stronger buyer base that is less prone to panic selling during corrections. The on-chain data over the coming weeks will be decisive in validating — or invalidating — this scenario.
