Bitcoin’s response: China’s countermove to Trump and the potential bull run

Bitcoin Digests the Macroeconomic Shock: A Hidden Opportunity?

The market feared the worst after the announcement of US tariffs, but China’s response caught everyone off guard. By maintaining a stable yuan and robust exports, Beijing avoided widespread panic in Asian markets, offering Bitcoin an unexpected stabilization ground. Unlike the October 2025 crash, BTC is not collapsing; it’s building a base.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading in a critical zone around $89,100. This relative stability, while the trade war rages on, is interpreted by many analysts as a sign of the asset’s maturity. BTC seems to be gradually decoupling from traditional shocks, increasingly acting as a safe haven against fiat currency uncertainty.

However, caution remains warranted. While China manages to cushion the blow for now, any sudden devaluation of the yuan could trigger a massive capital flight toward crypto, acting as an explosive bullish catalyst, similar to movements observed during previous trade wars.

Technical Analysis: Whales Defend the $84,000 Support

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s market structure is tense. The price is currently trading below a major resistance located between $94,000 and $94,700, a level that has rejected upward attempts since mid-January (as shown by the daily order block). The daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a hidden bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure is exhausting.

The real stronghold lies lower. The $84,000 – $86,000 zone has been identified as a critical institutional support. This is where “smart money” reloads their positions. A break of this level would invalidate the consolidation thesis and could open the door to a more severe correction toward $80,000.

A particularly bullish on-chain signal confirms this buying interest. According to recent data, wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have added approximately 110,000 BTC to their reserves over the past two weeks. This massive accumulation, highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, indicates that large holders are betting on a bullish resolution to this phase of uncertainty.

Scenarios: Can BTC Reclaim $100,000?

Two trajectories are emerging for the coming days, dependent on Bitcoin’s ability to transform Chinese resilience into bullish momentum:

• Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin manages to break through the $94,700 resistance with volume, this would confirm the end of consolidation. The immediate target would then be the psychological zone of $100,000, before aiming for the November highs around $107,000.
• Bearish Scenario: Repeated failure below $90,000, coupled with an escalation of Sino-American tensions, could force a retest of the vital $84,000 support. A daily close below this threshold would likely trigger cascading liquidations toward $80,600.

Despite everything, from a cycle and global liquidity perspective, Bitcoin is more likely to continue downward.

As Killa indicates, Bitcoin displays its peak before M2 before completing its decline with the latter’s trajectory. In other words, liquidity may not flow into Bitcoin anytime soon. Moreover, the explosion of precious metals is proof of this growing recession fear among investors.

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