The Dollar (DXY) Threatened with Collapse: False Good News for Crypto?
The market is changing its tune. The Truflation index, which measures real-time inflation, shows notable cooling, pushing the odds of a Fed rate cut in March from 9.4% to over 21.2% in one week. The market is beginning to price in the first pivot of 2026. Immediate consequence: analysts anticipate that if the Fed takes action, the DXY could plummet an additional 10%, adding to its 1.4% drop since the beginning of the year.
On paper, this is the ideal scenario for a bull run. A weak dollar typically pushes investors toward risk assets like Bitcoin. Yet 2025 has broken this correlation: the crypto market has fallen 7.8% even as the dollar lost ground. The culprit? US debt. With $292 billion in interest paid in Q3 2025 and China liquidating its Treasury bonds, the financial system faces major liquidity stress. If this pressure persists, even a free-falling dollar might not be enough to propel BTC to new heights.
Indeed, as Rand indicates on X, the world is in a phase of uncertainty greater than 9/11, COVID, and the Iraq War combined. This context makes things even more complicated to predict.
Bitcoin (BTC): Is the $63,000 Support in Mortal Danger?
Technically, Bitcoin is navigating troubled waters. Currently trading around the $67,000 – $68,000 zone, the queen of cryptos is struggling to regain clear bullish momentum. The market structure remains fragile after the recent rejection below $72,000.
Moreover, the 14th of the month is a famous pivot point for trader Killa. An average drop of 8% occurs on BTC after the 14th of each month. In other words, if BTC pushes toward the order block in 16H by Friday, the probabilities of a rejection toward 60k, or even 52K in the coming weeks, are very high.
To turn the tide and hope for a massive breakout, the bulls must imperatively reconquer the resistance at $72,000 and break free from this selling order block that extends up to $79,000. Momentum indicators remain mixed, suggesting that indecision still reigns among whales. If the Fed disappoints or if the debt crisis intensifies, the positive correlation between dollar weakness and Bitcoin strength could be definitively broken for this cycle.
The market is at a crossroads. On one side, the prospect of increased liquidity via rate cuts is powerful fuel. On the other, macroeconomic fundamentals (debt, massive Chinese selling) act like a tight handbrake. The current zone is risky: anticipating the move could pay big, but the risk of a fakeout is real.
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